Faculty of Economics
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Item type:Publication, Engines and Constraints of Growth in the Western Balkans: Insights for EU Convergence(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2025-12); Gacova, KatarinaThis paper investigates the determinants of GDP growth in nine Western Balkan countries over the period 2000 – 2023 using an unbalanced panel dataset. The analysis incorporates gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports of goods and services, final and household consumption, labor force growth, and inflation as explanatory variables. To address cross-sectional dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, the study employs a three-model econometric framework, including two-way fixed effects, correlated random effects, and random effects specifications. The results demonstrate that investment, exports, and final consumption are the most robust and statistically significant drivers of GDP growth, while imports consistently exert a negative effect. Labor force growth is positively associated with output but only becomes significant under more robust specifications, whereas inflation shows no systematic impact. The findings highlight the dual role of external competitiveness and domestic demand in sustaining growth, while underscoring structural vulnerabilities linked to import dependence and weak labor market absorption. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Women, Work, and Birth Rates in Southeastern Europe: A Regional Panel Perspective(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2025-12)The study explores the interdependence between female labor force participation and fertility dynamics in eight Southeastern European countries during 2000 – 2023, using the crude birth rate as a consistent macro level proxy for fertility in panel regression estimation. The analysis covers eight countries and incorporates economic, educational, and demographic control variables. Results reveal that short-term increases in female employment and tertiary education enrollment are significantly associated with declining birth rates, while economic growth shows a positive effect. Other factors, including part-time employment, urbanization, and parental leave policies, are not statistically significant in the short run. The study underscores the complexity of natality dynamics in transitioning economies and highlights the need for supportive family policies. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, ARIMA forecasting for new Covid-19 cases in North Macedonia(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2021)One of the most serious challenges on global level in the past year and a half was the COVID-19 pandemic. Having severe impact on almost every segment of the society, pandemic has made difficult downward changes: weakening of the economy, placing enormous burden on the public health service providers, putting limitations on free movement and travel, reducing the education to online lectures etc. One complicated aspect of the pandemic is its turbulence with three waves of rise in infections and now the begging of the fourth wave as results of the new Delta variant. While the world hopes for the day when the pandemic will end, rising numbers of new COVID-19 infections seem to postpone the end of the crisis. This paper aims to test the ARIMA model whether it can be used as a good forecasting model of the new daily COVID-19 cases in North Macedonia. If the results are proven to be acceptable, the model can be used for forecast that can be used as valuable input for policy makers and their decisions on the new and current restrictions. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The economics of tobacco farming in North Macedonia(European Publishing, 2023-10-08); ; Tobacco leaf cultivation occupies around 3.2 percent of total arable land in North Macedonia. North Macedonia is the second largest producer of oriental-type tobacco leaf after Turkey. In 2021, the total production of tobacco was 24,329 tons from 15,457 hectares of land, with an average yield per hectare of 1,574 kilograms. North Macedonia ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2006, which introduced a legal commitment for the reduction of tobacco production and consumption as well as to help those who are employed in the tobacco sector to find alternative viable livelihoods. The process of EU integration will require the reduction of crop-specific subsidies, likely leading to less income to tobacco farmers and an eventual reduction in the area harvested. The Government adopted a new Strategy for Tobacco Production (2021–2027) in which there is envisaged indirect support for tobacco farmers, but reparations will be made with education and counseling for future change to other crops. Tobacco farming traditionally has been supported by the Government of the Republic of North Macedonia. However, there is not enough research on the economic livelihood of tobacco farmers. Тo fill this gap and to provide results to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, a survey with a nationally representative sample was conducted. The survey comprises 806 farming households from 14 municipalities (urban and rural) in the top tobacco- producing regions in North Macedonia. Target groups (categories of respondents) for the survey are the following: 1. tobacco farmer (the respondent is a farmer who grew tobacco in 2021); 2. former tobacco farmer (the respondent is a farmer who grew tobacco in any year before 2021 and now cultivates other agricultural crops); and 3. never tobacco farmer (the respondent is a farmer who cultivates any agricultural crop other than tobacco and never cultivated tobacco previously). Survey results: - Around half of tobacco farmers are not turning a real profit. While most tobacco farmers believe they achieve positive “perceived” profits (excluding the value of household labor), with only a few households perceiving negative profits, around half of the households actually achieved negative “real” profits. - Most farmers struggle financially, living with an average monthly income below the average net monthly wage and below the value of the minimum household consumer basket. - Pensions and remittances are one of the most important components for maintaining an adequate level of income and standard of living for tobacco farmers’ families. Although they spend the most time in the field, current tobacco farmers have a higher incidence of poverty compared to former and never tobacco farmers. - Compared to former tobacco workers or never tobacco workers, the median current tobacco farmer devotes more time to growing crops. The median male farmer worked 1400 hours on tobacco cultivation, while the median male former and never tobacco farmers worked 1000 hours and 1260 hours, respectively. - Тhe children of tobacco farmers are more involved in farming relative to other farmers’ children. Children’s help in the harvesting of tobacco is 2.3 times more common compared to children’s help in harvesting other crops; however, no farmer reported hiring children to help with tobacco cultivation and children do not appear to be engaged in potentially harmful activities related to pesticide/ herbicide application. - Compared to other crop activities, tobacco cultivation typically requires significantly more pesticide. Pesticides are related to persistent health challenges for farmers and damage the environment through contamination of groundwater and watersheds. - Tobacco farmers show signs of green tobacco sickness, a form of acute nicotine poisoning. - Current tobacco farmers are more likely to rent land for farming compared to former and never tobacco farmers. In the survey, 22.2 percent of current tobacco farmers and 13.7 percent of former tobacco farmers stated that they rent land from others. - The vast majority of farmers reported having a contract with a leaf buyer. Survey results shows that almost all tobacco farmers (94 percent) in all major tobacco-growing regions have signed contracts with tobacco leaf buyers. More than half (57 percent) of the tobacco farmers say they are satisfied with the concluded tobacco agreement, while 36 percent are not. Tobacco cultivation is not as profitable as the government suggests. Thus, highlighting tobacco as a highly profitable crop is unfounded. This research indicates it would be much better for tobacco farmers, in terms of labor and economic efficiency, to reorient and grow another crop or pursue other economic activities in their local economy (such as wage work or small business). Around half of tobacco farmers are not turning a real profit. The opportunity cost for unpaid family labor makes growing tobacco unprofitable. Revenues of tobacco farmers decrease significantly when the opportunity costs are calculated. Household members could better allocate their labor to other tasks that earn money; not doing so results in significant economic loss for those tobacco families. Poverty rates among tobacco farmers are slightly higher than the nationwide poverty rate. Current tobacco farmers have the highest incidence of poverty when considering per capita income. Despite their high poverty rate, only a small share of tobacco farmers use some form of social assistance. Input costs for growing tobacco are typically very high, particularly compared to most other crops. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Tobacco farming and the effects of tobaccosubsidies in North Macedonia(E.U. European Publishing, 2022-07-05); ; - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The effect of imported EU inflation on Macedonian inflation – a cointegration approach(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2022)Inflation has become one of the most important challenges in a world that is still recovering from the pandemic, and it is suffering the consequences from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Pandemic restrictions, bottleneck pressures in supply chains, jump in energy prices – these are all causing the inflation to rise, and slowing the recovery of many economies globally. This paper investigates the foreign drivers of national inflation using the cointegration approach and the Vector Error Correction Model. It tends to prove that there is long-term relationship between the national inflation and the inflation in the European Union. This is understandable, having in mind that North Macedonia is small and open economy, dependable on imports of food, energy, and other products. The impulse response function estimated in the model confirm that shocks in EU inflation have significant and long-term implication on the national inflation. The effect from the shock starts in the first month and it pertains throughout the observed period of 12 months, reaching its maximum of 0.7315 percentage points. This is a clear indicator that every shock that occurs in the inflation in the European Union almost immediately transfers to the national inflation. Forecasts of the model predict steady increase in the national inflation rate, ending the year 2022 with 14.8%. The existence of this relationship should be important guideline to policy makers, who should be aware of the significant foreign impact. They should create appropriate and timely policy consisted of monetary, fiscal, social, and other measures that could fight the rising inflation in more effective manner. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Viable health funding in time of demographic ageing(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2022-03-14)In the past several decades, a new challenge has arisen. It refers to the rapid demographic aging of the population in developed and developing countries, quite the opposite of the previous understanding of an overpopulated planet. An increase in the older population brings implications for different segments of society and the national health system, and its funding is one of them. This paper aims to analyze if there is a relationship between government health expenditure and the increase in the older population in fourteen countries in the European Union experiencing the most intense process of demographic aging. The relationship between health expenditure and population aging is a highly debatable issue. There is significant research supporting both hypotheses, the former being that aging influences the health expenditures and the latter i.e., the opposite one that the demographic aging of the population does not drive the health expenditures. More than twenty years ago, this conundrum was addressed as a "Red Herring"; however, the debate continues up to nowadays. This paper aims to determine whether aging is a significant factor when it comes to health expenditure. Accordingly, possible further recommendations will follow should policymakers look at the aging population or other possible determinants to prevent the potential rise in health expenditure such as government social spending. The model also includes gross domestic product per capita and a dummy variable to estimate the effect of the global recession on health expenditure. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Predicting consumer intention to use mobile banking services in North Macedonia(International Journal of Multidisciplinarity in Business and Science, 2020); ; Smartphones and mobile technologies are becoming increasingly available and affordable in the Republic of North Macedonia. Followed by this trend, many banks are providing banking services to customers via smartphones. They are increasingly investing in mobile channels by providing mobile banking services. Therefore, the goal of this research is to examine predictors of consumer intention to use mobile banking services in North Macedonia. In order to get insights regarding the user adoption of m-banking services in the country, a survey was conducted among more than 150 mobile users. The research model proposed in this study examines the influence of several basic constructs that explain technology acceptance and innovation diffusion (performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions). In addition, its originality and practical implications is reflected in determining the significance of additional constructs that are specific for the m-banking domain, such as perceived risk and bank’s reputation. The results of the empirical study indicate that three of the four basic constructs of the UTAUT model (performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and facilitating conditions) determine intention to use mobile banking, while social influence does not significantly influence mobile banking adoption in the sample. Regarding the two new constructs in the model, risk and bank’s reputation, they are both confirmed as important antecedents of consumer intention to use m-banking in our sample. By highlighting the usefulness of integrating constructs from different theories of technology acceptance, this research is a holistic approach representing a solid base for future studies on the adoption of new technologies in the country. From practitioner’s viewpoint, this research offers valuable insights for developing m-banking solutions. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, ONLINE LEARNING ADOPTION DURING COVID19 PANDEMIC – THE EXPERIENCE OF THE UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS IN NORTH MACEDONIA1(Horizons - International Scientific Journal, 2022-12-15); ; Abstract Since spring 2020 when pandemic suddenly threatened the world in unexpected way, a dramatic shift in how people live, work, and learn/study is evident. Global pandemic restriction strategies like stay-at-home orders, social distancing and long periods of lockdowns have disrupted the traditional campus-based model of education i.e. the traditional in-classroom teaching, and have forced fast adoption of online learning systems as remote/distance learning. For most counties/universities worldwide, online learning was one of the efforts to minimize the spread of Covid-19 and convenient opportunity of continuing the educational process in those circumstances. This was the case in the country as well. In this sense, the goal of this paper is to analyze the adoption of online learning among university students in the country. The basis for the research model is the original Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). This fundamental model examines the crucial predictors/factors of technology adoption including the following constructs: perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, attitude towards using, behavioral intention and actual use. In order to get insights 1 original research paper 126 regarding the online learning adoption among university students in the country, a survey was conducted among more than 150 undergraduates during April and May 2022, while online learning was still undergoing. The results of this study capture valuable insights regarding the adoption of online learning and can be used as solid base for higher education institutions in the country to shape their online education offerings in order to remain competitive in a post-pandemic future. This research provides relevant practical implications by elaborating that the analyzed factors are critical towards online learning attitude in our country. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, ONLINE LEARNING ADOPTION DURING COVID19 PANDEMIC – THE EXPERIENCE OF THE UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS IN NORTH MACEDONIA(UNIVERSITY „St. KLIMENT OHRIDSKI “- BITOLA, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS – PRILEP, 2022-09); ; Abstract Since spring 2020 when pandemic suddenly threatened the world in unexpected way, a dramatic shift in how people live, work, and learn/study is evident. Global pandemic restriction strategies like stay-at-home orders, social distancing and long periods of lockdowns have disrupted the traditional campus based model of education i.e. the traditional in-classroom teaching, and have forced fast adoption of online learning systems as remote/distance learning. For most counties/universities worldwide, online learning was one of the efforts to minimize the spread of Covid-19 and convenient opportunity of continuing the educational process in those circumstances. This was the case in the country as well. In this sense, the goal of this paper is to analyze the adoption of online learning among university students in the country. The basis for the research model is the original Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). This fundamental model examines the crucial predictors/factors of technology adoption including the following constructs: perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, attitude towards using, behavioral intention and actual use. In order to get insights regarding the online learning adoption among university students in the country, a survey was conducted among more than 150 undergraduates during April and May 2022, while online learning was still undergoing. The results of this study capture valuable insights regarding the adoption of online learning and can be used as solid base for higher education institutions in the country to shape their online education offerings in order to remain competitive in a post-pandemic future. This research provides relevant practical implications by elaborating that the analyzed factors are critical towards online learning attitude in our country.