ARIMA forecasting for new Covid-19 cases in North Macedonia
Journal
ANNUAL OF THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS - SKOPJE
Date Issued
2021
Author(s)
DOI
УДК 616.98:578.834]-036.22:303.094.(497.7)
Abstract
One of the most serious challenges on global level in the past year and
a half was the COVID-19 pandemic. Having severe impact on almost every
segment of the society, pandemic has made difficult downward changes:
weakening of the economy, placing enormous burden on the public health
service providers, putting limitations on free movement and travel, reducing
the education to online lectures etc. One complicated aspect of the pandemic
is its turbulence with three waves of rise in infections and now the begging of
the fourth wave as results of the new Delta variant.
While the world hopes for the day when the pandemic will end, rising
numbers of new COVID-19 infections seem to postpone the end of the crisis.
This paper aims to test the ARIMA model whether it can be used as a good
forecasting model of the new daily COVID-19 cases in North Macedonia. If
the results are proven to be acceptable, the model can be used for forecast
that can be used as valuable input for policy makers and their decisions on
the new and current restrictions.
a half was the COVID-19 pandemic. Having severe impact on almost every
segment of the society, pandemic has made difficult downward changes:
weakening of the economy, placing enormous burden on the public health
service providers, putting limitations on free movement and travel, reducing
the education to online lectures etc. One complicated aspect of the pandemic
is its turbulence with three waves of rise in infections and now the begging of
the fourth wave as results of the new Delta variant.
While the world hopes for the day when the pandemic will end, rising
numbers of new COVID-19 infections seem to postpone the end of the crisis.
This paper aims to test the ARIMA model whether it can be used as a good
forecasting model of the new daily COVID-19 cases in North Macedonia. If
the results are proven to be acceptable, the model can be used for forecast
that can be used as valuable input for policy makers and their decisions on
the new and current restrictions.
Subjects
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