Пристап за моделирање на подложноста кон свлекување на теренот со примена на ГИС технологија

Abstract

This Doctoral thesis presents landslide susceptibility modeling using GIS technology. Numerous analyses related to terrain instabilities are presented for the purpose of successful comprehension of all aspects which should be taken into account when performing this type of analysis. All recommendations of internationally renowned authors and organizations for preparation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning maps are thoroughly analyzed. In addition, review of the current practice on this subject in the Republic of Macedonia is presented. The negative effects of landslides on the infrastructure of the country are commented, followed by statistical processing of their numerous conditions, properties and parameters. Some of the most damaging landslides are described in detail. Functional landslide database and landslide inventory map of the Republic of Macedonia is prepared using GIS technology, thus enabling easy data manipulation and data refreshing. When put into function, the database will enable informing of citizens and institutions about the location and properties of landslides, with recommendations for foundation and protection of structures built in nearby locations. The ultimate measure would be prohibition of construction in zones with very high landslide hazard through legislative measurements. The principles of establishment and maintenance of GIS-based landslide database are presented, with appropriate analysis of the benefits, possibilities and goals of its existence, structure and mode of functioning, as well as recommendation for possible administrator thereof. Appropriate datasheet for each landslide that will be entered in the database is proposed. Combined approach of arbitrary values and polynomial interpolation for landslide susceptibility modeling is presented. Lithology, slope inclination, annual rainfalls, land use, and maximum expected seismic intensity are considered to be the most influential factors for landslide development. Verification of the approach is performed for terrains where landslides are most present on the territory of Macedonia. A number of models describing the landslide susceptibility for the analyzed region are prepared by adding weight coefficients (correction factors) to each factor. According to the model which has highest prediction power of future occurrences, 86.78% of the mapped landslides fall in a zone of high and very high susceptibility. On the other hand, according to the model with lowest prediction power, 75.58% of mapped landslides fall in the same zones. The analysis of all the prepared models shows that the methodology applied gives satisfactory results. It should be emphasized that it is verified only for landslide occurrences such as rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches, rock spreads due to the character of the mapping technique used. Verification of the model for landslide occurrences as deep creep, complex landslides, and all other terrain instabilities occurring in soil materials can be performed only after conducting detailed field mapping and laboratory testing. For the purpose of assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility development, appropriate methodology is proposed, which would enable analytical connection of the safety factor with the total landslide hazard factor, as a field for further scientific researches. The results presented can find several practical uses, can be used for development of new scientific ideas, development of procedures for adaptation of the proposed models on other terrains, encouragement for new researches and analyses in Macedonia and worldwide.