Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/5974
Title: Financial crises are predictable: The case of the EU candidate countries
Authors: Bucevska, Vesna 
Keywords: forecasting models, early warning system (EWS) model, financial crisis, logit model, the EU candidate countries
Issue Date: Jun-2013
Publisher: Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”
Conference: THE 6TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE "THE CHANGING ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE: ISSUES, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS", Pula, Croatia, May 30-01 June 2013
Abstract: The global financial crisis of 2007/2008 has rekindled the interest of economists and policymakers in explaining the occurrence of financial crises. The importance of predicting financial crises early on is especially true with the EU candidate countries that as a consequence of the recent crisis, have been forced to deal with multiple exogenous shocks simultaneously. The purpose of our paper is to assess the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants of financial crises and to build an econometric model which will serve as a tool for predicting future financial crises. By specifying a binomial logit model based on actual quarterly panel data for the four EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey and Iceland) over a long sample period (from January 2005 to September 2012), we find the GDP growth rate, the trade balance as a percentage of GDP, the ratio of bank deposits to GDP and the budget balance as a percentage of GDP the key macroeconomic determinants of financial crises incidence. The obtained empirical results give support to the thesis that financial crises are predictable. However, they can not be solely explained by only one group of variables, but by a number of different types of determinants.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/5974
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Economics 02: Conference papers / Трудови од научни конференции

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