ARIMA forecasting for new Covid-19 cases in North Macedonia

Abstract

One of the most serious challenges on global level in the past year and a half was the COVID-19 pandemic. Having severe impact on almost every segment of the society, pandemic has made difficult downward changes: weakening of the economy, placing enormous burden on the public health service providers, putting limitations on free movement and travel, reducing the education to online lectures etc. One complicated aspect of the pandemic is its turbulence with three waves of rise in infections and now the begging of the fourth wave as results of the new Delta variant. While the world hopes for the day when the pandemic will end, rising numbers of new COVID-19 infections seem to postpone the end of the crisis. This paper aims to test the ARIMA model whether it can be used as a good forecasting model of the new daily COVID-19 cases in North Macedonia. If the results are proven to be acceptable, the model can be used for forecast that can be used as valuable input for policy makers and their decisions on the new and current restrictions.