Climate risks and vulnerability of the local economy of the City of Skopje

Abstract

Climate change is a global problem that challenges humanity. Global warming, which is expected to bring extreme weather events, exposes human health, ecological systems, and ultimately the economy to great risks. Although the economy affects climate change, climate change also affects the economy. The effects of climate change on the economy in the short term can be positive or negative, but in the long term there is a consensus that global GDP will on average experience a significant reduction depending on the intensity of global warming. In addition to the small direct impact through disruption of economic inputs, the indirect impact through the transmission mechanism of productivity and investments on GDP is complex. However, climate impacts are not expected to have an equal negative impact on all economies in the world, and the Republic of North Macedonia is in the group of counties less vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we will apply the SECAP methodology for assessment of climate risks and vulnerability of the local economy of the City of Skopje. For this purpose, we will do an in-depth analysis of the local economy through the sectoral approach. The City of Skopje is an administrative city, and the sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and construction, are marginal. An increase in the intensity of the extreme weather is expected, especially the increase in temperatures in all seasons with increased precipitation and flash floods. Therefore, an increase in climatic risks is expected in the local economy in the City of Skopje in relation to the current vulnerability. Аlthough some sectors would be negatively affected by climatic change, the general assessment is that the economy of the City of Skopje will remain moderately vulnerable to future climate risks. It is because of the expectations for strong adaptability of local businesses and change of business models according to the new economic conditions.