Оптимален модел за водење на монетарна политика во мала и отворена економија

Abstract

Central banks in the process of making monetary decisions rely on models for monetary policy. Models are tools for analysis and forecasting. They help the central banks to forecast the future path of the key monetary variables, related to the fact that the monetary policy decisions affect the real economy with a time lag. Models also reflect the way the economy functions and the specific monetary transmission mechanism. In this thesis, the author builds three models with alternative rules for monetary policy and illustrates the corresponding monetary transmission mechanisms for the Macedonian economy. The models which are used are small structural models and they embed the characteristics of the modern monetary theory, such as rational expectations, endogenous monetary policy reaction function, and model consistent filtering of the Macedonian data by using Kalman filter. Building models serves as a basis for the author to decide which, is the optimal monetary policy model for Macedonia. The evaluation is based on the prediction power of the models of the key monetary variables, inflation, output gap and nominal interest rate. The conclusion is that the model with fixed exchange rate and foreign reserves is the optimal model for monetary policy for the Macedonian economy.