Excess Mortality in a Nephrology Clinic during First Months of Coronavirus Disease-19 Pandemic: A Pragmatic Approach

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality is defined as mortality above what would be expected based on the non-crisis mortality rate in the population of interest. AIM: In this study, we aimed to access weather the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic had impact on the in-hospital mortality during the first 6 months of the year and compare it with the data from the previous years. METHODS: A retroprospective study was conducted at the University Clinic of Nephrology Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. In-hospital mortality rates were calculated for the first half of the year (01.01–30.06) from 2015 until 2020, as monthly number of dead patients divided by the number of non-elective hospitalized patents in the same period. The excess mortality rate (p-score) was calculated as ratio or percentage of excess deaths relative to expected average deaths: (Observed mortality rate–expected average death rate)/expected average death rate *100%. RESULTS: The expected (average) overall death mortality rate for the period 2015–2019 was 8.9% and for 2020 was 15.3%. The calculated overall excess mortality in 2020 was 72% (pscore 0.72). CONCLUSION: In this pragmatic study, we have provided clear evidence of high excess mortality at our nephrology clinic during the 1st months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The delayed referral of patients due to the patient and health care system-related factors might partially explain the excess mortality during pandemic crises. Further analysis is needed to estimate unrecognized probable COVID-19 deaths.