Cvetanoska, Marijana

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Cvetanoska, Marijana

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Unemployment and a Stock – Flow Model on the Labour Market in the Republic of Macedonia
(Economic Research Institute at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 2017)
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The aim of this paper is to analyse the unemployment on the basis of administrative data sources and application of the stock-flow model. The intention is to recognize the changes and features of the unemployment regarding stocks and flows of the main segments on the labour market: employed, unemployed and inactive population in the Republic of Macedonia. Main reasons for the implementation of stock – flow model for determining the level of unemployment in Macedonia are following: a) Labour Force Survey (LFS) used by State Statistical Office (SSO) is based on the Census from 2002, therefore the sample used for calculating the level of unemployment is inadequate; and b) contrary to any economic logic, during the great global economic crisis and in the period after the crisis, the unemployment in Macedonia permanently decreased in conditions when the economy registered negative rates of economic growth and decline in industrial production over a longer period of time. The application of the stock – flow model, for the period 2008-2014 shows that the unemployment has not been reduced, i.e. the unemployment rate have stagnated or even increased. This is contrary to the trend of unemployment changes according to LFS of SSO. Thus, in 2014 the unemployment rate is higher than in the previous years by both alternatives in the calculations. According to our findings, the application of stock-flow model gives more realistic explanation of the changes and current situation on the Macedonian labour market, than the statistical data from the LFS of SSO in Macedonia. Our analysis shows that in a country with high and long-term unemployment, where the phenomenon of discouraged workers is expressed, and there has not been made a Census of the population for a longer period of time, accompanied by major demographic changes such as: an aging population and massive emigration from the country, the implementation of stock – flow model has significant analytical value in determining the unemployment and its analysis.
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An empirical investigation of selected factors determining the labour productivity in Macedonia
(2018-12)
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Labor productivity is a crucial determinant of one economy’s competitiveness, and it varies across different countries and areas. Productivity growth is important because it contributes to growth in output, income and living standards. There are only two measures which can be used for increasing the level of economic output: one is by applying more labor effort in the production process (such as more jobs) and the second through increases in the productivity of the workforce. Or in other words, it means bringing additional inputs into production; or increase productivity. As labor force growth slows and unemployment remains at relatively low levels, economies increasingly have to enhance productivity in order to maintain the high rates of output and income growth that have become common place over the past few decades. Although there are several reasons for differences in the level of economic development among countries, generally, we can start from the assumption that differences in economic development results from the differences in productivity. At the national level, higher productivity increases living standards as more real income improves people’s ability to consume and demand more goods and services whether they are necessities or luxuries, enjoy leisure, improve housing and education and contribute to social and environmental programs. Despite the significant productivity growth from 2002 to 2008, and again from 2014 to 2017, Macedonia still lags behind the EU average. Macedonia’s labour productivity has negative growth rate from 2017 upwards. It drops by 4.4% in the first quarter compared with a drop of 2.1% in the previous quarter. There are various countries specific case studies and various literature that are exploring the determinants of labour productivity growth in a particular country. This study intends to identify the potential determinants of labour productivity in Macedonia. Based on an extensive literature review, we identify several factors that determine Macedonia’s labour productivity. We quantify the relationship between the productivity growth and physical capital through gross capital formation, human capital through educational structure of employees, foreign direct investments and real wages. On the side of methodology, correlation and regression analysis for testing the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables are used. The fundamental assumption for a clear econometric analysis is the stationarity of data time series and the regression analysis is followed by studying the stationarity of time series using Unit root test. The study is based on time series and the data on empirical analysis is taken from State Office of the Republic of Macedonia and World Bank. The sources of productivity are complex and they differ from country to country. While growth in productivity and in labour utilization are both sources of improvement in living standards, productivity growth can make a major contribution over the long term.
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The Impact of the Main Determinants and Changes in Agricultural Labour Productivity in Macedonia
(European Scientific Institute, ESI., 2018-04)
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The aim of this paper is to analyze changes and impacts on the level of labour productivity in the agricultural sector in Macedonia in the period from 2006 to 2017. Labour productivity is an important determinant for establishing the competitiveness of a particular sector or overall economy and helps in creating the necessary conditions for economic development. Agricultural sector in many countries represents the basis for growth in gross domestic product. Agriculture plays a key role in development of the national economy in Macedonia as a third largest sector after services and industry. Therefore, in order to increase the agricultural labour productivity, it is necessary to increase agricultural production, i.e., the part of gross domestic product created by the agriculture sector. In this direction, the paper also analyzes the relationship between agricultural labour productivity and gross domestic product and employment in agriculture. Synthesis and analysis, induction and deduction, descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis are used for the purpose of the paper. The results show that changes in gross domestic product in agricultural sector in Macedonia have a greater impact on agricultural labour productivity for the analyzed period compared to the impact of changes in the number of employees in the agriculture sector where the relationship is weak to moderate. Research results also showed that there is a positive and strong quantitative relationship between agricultural labour productivity growth rate and GDP growth rate in Macedonian economy. Agricultural GDP is the determinant which has to be influenced through intensification of agricultural production in order to increase the agricultural productivity.
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Анализа на вработеноста на младите на пазарот на труд во Македонија
(Економски факултет - Скопје, 2017)
Глобализацијата и технолошкиот напредок имаат големо влијание врз пазарите на труд ширум светот, а младите луѓе се соочуваат со голем број предизвици поврзани со ваквиот развој. Трендот на вработување на младите лица има тенденција да го промени пазарот на трудот на возрасните со што би се зголемила вработеноста кај младата популација. Целта на овој труд е да се анализира младото население на пазарот на труд во Македонија, со посебен осврт на моменталната состојба. Анализата на вработувањето на младите е надополнета со вкрстување со нивната образовна и економска структура. Младите се дел од работната сила што може значително да придонесе кон подинамичен економски развој на земјава со своето знаење и креативни способности. Анализата на состојбата на младите луѓе на пазарот на трудот во Македонија е прикажана преку споредба со индикатори на пазарот на трудот на национално ниво, како и со избрани земји од Европската Унија. Резултатите покажуваат дека младите работници (на возраст од 15 до 24 години) во Македонија се со поголема веројатност да бидат невработени во однос на другите возрасни групи и дека младите невработени лица се во понеповолна позиција на пазарот на трудот во споредба со другите возрасни категории на граѓани. Во однос на стапките на активност, како и стапките на вработеност и невработеност заедно, населението во Македонија на возраст меѓу 15 и 29 години е значително хетерогено.
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Gross fixed capital formation and productivity in Southeastern Europe
(Faculty of Economics & Business University of Zagreb, 2019-06)
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Capital formation is considered to be an important factor of economic growth both in theoretical and empirical literature. It is generally agreed that the main purpose of economic development is to build capital equipment on a sufficient scale to increase productivity in the economy. Therefore, capital formation makes development possible even with increasing productivity. It is also recognized that gross capital formation has a direct, but also an indirect impact on the productivity. Based on an intensive and a comprehensive literature review, the aim of the paper is to examine the impact of fixed capital investments on productivity in the countries of Southeastern Europe in the period from 2000 to 2017. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia are part of the analysis, except Kosovo which is not a subject of the study due to a lack of data. Beside Southeastern Europen countries, the research is done at the European Union level, and Germany and France are also included as a two leading economies in the European Union. The paper starts from the assumption that fixed capital investments determine the marginal labour productivity, which in turn determines the demand for labour and the employment. In other words, greater investments in fixed capital will increase the marginal labour productivity, which will increase the demand for labour and the employment. In the paper, a regression analysis and correlation are implemented in order to determine and predict the impact of fixed asset investments on productivity. Testing of the series of fixed assets investment and productivity is done by applying the Unit Root test using the Augmented Dickey - Fuller test. Also, a cluster analysis is made and the k-mean clustering method is applied. Results of the study show that changes in productivity are largely explained by changes in gross fixed capital formation at European Union level and in Germany and France, and in these countries there is a higher coefficient of correlation between investments in fixed assets and productivity. A high correlation coefficients are also obtained in Southeastern European countries that are members of European Union, primarily Slovenia, Greece and Romania, while in Croatia this coefficient is slightly lower. An only exception from Southeastern European countries that are members of the European Union is Bulgaria, which has a very low coefficient of correlation between investments in fixed assets and productivity. In nonEuropean Union countries of Southeastern Europe (Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania), changes in productivity cannot be generally explained by the changes in fixed capital investments, and in these countries there is a very low correlation coefficient between gross fixed capital formation and productivity. Using the cluster analysis based on the k-mean clustering method, three clusters are defined: Cluster 1: Croatia and Romania; Cluster 2: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia; and Cluster 3: France, Germany, Greece Slovenia and 278 the European Union. Cluster analysis shows that in Cluster 3, which is defined with countries that have high GDP per capita, high employment and low unemployment, the impact of gross fixed capital formation on productivity is greater. On the other hand, in Cluster 2, that includes non-European Union countries (exception is Bulgaria, which is a member of European Union), and is defined with lower GDP per capita, low employment rates and high unemployment, gross fixed capital formation has not a significant impact on productivity.
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Education and its effects on the labour market in Macedonia
(Faculty of Economics Pale, 2019-03)
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Human capital represents the most valuable asset held by most individuals. People accumulate human capital through investments in schooling and training. Governments subsidize many forms of human capital accumulation including primary, secondary and post-secondary schooling.Education plays a central role in preparing people to enter the labour market, offering them the opportunity to improve and increase their knowledge, skills and abilities. In recent decades, there has been rapid expansion of higher education across many countries. This has had important and profound effects on labour markets and the way in which employers use highly educated labour.The level of education is one of the key predictors of long-term success in the labour market, it is related to the likelihood to be employed, the amount of salary and the quality and social attractiveness of the job. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify and analyze the relationship that exists between education and labour market in Macedonia. In order to reach this aim, information included in the statistical yearbooks (secondary data), reports and in different researches that have been made in different countries are analyzed and interpreted. This study provided evidence for the positive effects of education on the labour market in Macedonia. There is a positive link between the level of education and access to work and another positive effect of education on the labour market is related to the level of income
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Fiscal decentralization and the role of local government in local economic development in the Republic of Macedonia
(Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, Varazdin, Croatia; University North, Koprivnica, Croatia, 2015-04)
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The process of decentralization in Macedonia brought many responsibilities for local governments. With the Law on Local Self-Government were established and transferred responsibilities of local importance, which were placed under the jurisdiction of state institutions and which local authorities should perform independently. In this paper the Local Economic Development (LED) is analyzed as one of the first obligations transferred to the local level. The focus is placed on local authorities as a significant role in LED and their impact regarding on their natural resources, municipal infrastructure, their fiscal autonomy, financial capacity, administrative capacity, educational structure of people, etc. We analyzed some aspects of LED such as the level of fiscal decentralization, the legal and institutional framework, the support of the central government, capital investments, etc. to conclude that the major units of the local government in Macedonia implement the responsibility for local economic development at a low rate compared to the other responsibilities that are delegated to the municipalities and that the municipalities are still dependent on central governments activities. In order to analyze the impact of local government, in this paper we included a study for the municipality of Ohrid as a main tourist center in the Republic of Macedonia. In the study, there are presented the effects from the budget policy on the tourism as a main potential of local economic development. Finally, taking into consideration the results of the survey, in the paper there are presented recommendations that can serve as a basis for policymaking aimed to stimulate and support local and regional economic development in the Republic of Macedonia.
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The impact of human capital on the economic growth in Macedonia
(Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics – Skopje, 2019)
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The role of human capital in a country’s growth process is of great importance. As a separate factor of production, it contributes to solving key economic problems in the process of globalization, especially in economies based on knowledge. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the impact of human capital on the economic growth of Macedonia in the period from 2000 to 2016 through the usage of an econometric analysis of time series of human capital indicators which are widely accepted in theory and empirical research. It is about education and health, i.e. the educational qualifications of employees and their life expectancy. For that purpose, a regression analysis followed by an examination of stationarity of time series is used, as well as the necessary conditions for selecting the best model from all of the available alternatives. The results show that there is a positive link between human capital and economic growth in Macedonia. Also, educational qualifications and life expectancy have a positive effect on GDP per capita in Macedonia for the analyzed period. All of the variables show statistical significance, but higher education qualifications have proved to be an indicator of human capital with the greatest impact on the economic growth in Macedonia. Therefore, the economic policy-makers should accept and promote education and health as healthy economic investments which raise not only the quality of life, but also increase the productivity of the market and thus the output in the country
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ОБРАЗОВНАТА СТРУКТУРА НА ВРАБОТЕНИТЕ И ЗДРАВЈЕТО КАКО ДЕТЕРМИНАНТИ НА ЧОВЕЧКИОТ КАПИТАЛ ВО МАКЕДОНИЈА
(Економски факултет - Скопје, 2018)
Образованието игра централна улога во подготвувањето на луѓето да влезат на пазарот на трудот, нудејќи им можност да ги подобрат и зголемат нивните знаења, вештини и способности. Од друга страна, здравјето е клучна компонента на благосостојбата и стандардот на живеење на поединецот. Како детерминанти на човечкиот капитал кој е еден од факторите на производство, придонесуваат за решавање на клучни економски проблеми, особено во процесот на глобализација каде економиите се трансформраат и се базираат на знаењето. Порастот на количеството човечки капитал значи подобрување и зголемување на нивото на бруто домашниот производ. Целта на овој труд е да се прикаже образовната структура на вработените и да се оцени нејзиното влијанието и влијанието на здравјето врз економскиот раст во периодот од 2000 до 2016 година преку користење на економетриска анализа на временските серии на варијаблите. Исто така, накратко се прикажани и ефектите на образовната структура на вработените врз пазарот на труд преку дескриптивна статистика на заработките по час. Регресиона анализа проследена со испитување на стацинарноста на сериите, како и испитување на неопходните услови за избор на најдобар модел од достапните алтернативи, се користат за тестирање на ефектите од образовната структура на вработените и здравјето врз економскиот раст во Македонија. Резултатите покажуваат дека постои позитивна врска, односно дека образовните квалификации и очекуваниот век на живеење имаат позитивен ефект врз БДП per capita во Македонија. Сите варијабли се статистички значајни. Здравјето има позитивен ефект врз економскиот раст, меѓутоа високо-образовните квалификации имаат најголемо влијание врз економскиот раст во Македонија споредено со другите нивоа на образование.
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Анализа на продуктивноста на трудот во секторот земјоделство во Република Македонија
(Економски факултет - Скопје, 2016)
Продуктивноста на трудот има важна улога во формирањето на конкурентноста на одреден сектор или на целата економија и помага во создавањето на потребните услови за економски развој. Целта на овој труд е да се анализираат промените во нивото на продуктивноста на трудот во секторот земјоделство во Република Македонија во периодот од 2006 до 2015 година. Земјоделството игра клучна улога во развојот на националната економија во Македонија како трет најголем сектор по услугите и индустријата. Со цел да се зголеми продуктивноста на трудот во земјоделството, потребно е да се зголеми земјоделското производство, односно делот од бруто-домашниот производ создаден од секторот земјоделство. Во таа насока, во овој труд се анализира и зависноста помеѓу продуктивноста на трудот во земјоделството и бруто- домашниот производ и вработеноста во земјоделството. За таа цел, користени се следниве методи на анализа: дескриптивна статистика, метод на синтеза, метод на анализа, анализа на корелација и анализа на регресија. Резултатите покажуваат дека промените во бруто-домашниот производ во секторот земјоделство во Македонија во анализираниот период имаат поголемо влијание врз продуктивноста на трудот во земјоделството, споредено со промените во бројот на вработени во секторот земјоделство.

Cvetanoska, Marijana

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