Trpeski, Predrag
Preferred name
Trpeski, Predrag
Official Name
Trpeski, Predrag
Main Affiliation
Email
predrag@eccf.ukim.edu.mk
80 results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 80
- Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Unemployment and a Stock – Flow Model on the Labour Market in the Republic of Macedonia(Economic Research Institute at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 2017); ; ; The aim of this paper is to analyse the unemployment on the basis of administrative data sources and application of the stock-flow model. The intention is to recognize the changes and features of the unemployment regarding stocks and flows of the main segments on the labour market: employed, unemployed and inactive population in the Republic of Macedonia. Main reasons for the implementation of stock – flow model for determining the level of unemployment in Macedonia are following: a) Labour Force Survey (LFS) used by State Statistical Office (SSO) is based on the Census from 2002, therefore the sample used for calculating the level of unemployment is inadequate; and b) contrary to any economic logic, during the great global economic crisis and in the period after the crisis, the unemployment in Macedonia permanently decreased in conditions when the economy registered negative rates of economic growth and decline in industrial production over a longer period of time. The application of the stock – flow model, for the period 2008-2014 shows that the unemployment has not been reduced, i.e. the unemployment rate have stagnated or even increased. This is contrary to the trend of unemployment changes according to LFS of SSO. Thus, in 2014 the unemployment rate is higher than in the previous years by both alternatives in the calculations. According to our findings, the application of stock-flow model gives more realistic explanation of the changes and current situation on the Macedonian labour market, than the statistical data from the LFS of SSO in Macedonia. Our analysis shows that in a country with high and long-term unemployment, where the phenomenon of discouraged workers is expressed, and there has not been made a Census of the population for a longer period of time, accompanied by major demographic changes such as: an aging population and massive emigration from the country, the implementation of stock – flow model has significant analytical value in determining the unemployment and its analysis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Некои аспекти при мерење на невработеноста во Република Македонија(Економски факултет - Скопје, 2016)Трудот има за цел да прикаже некои аспекти при утврдување на невработеноста во земјата. Од денешна перспектива ова е потребно поради следново: прво, Македонија и по 25 години од осамостојувањето има највисока стапка на невработеност во Европа; второ, многу висока и на долг рок одржлива стапка на невработеност, особено кај популацијата во постуниверзитетската возраст (од 24-35 години); трето, намалување на невработеноста во последните години, дури и во услови на пад на индустриското производство и забавување на економскиот раст, што не се согласува со економските законитости за врската помеѓу економкиот раст и невработеноста; четврто, проблеми при мерење на невработеноста, а кои произлегуваат од долгиот период за кој не е направен попис во земјата. Клучното прашање што овој труд го третира е дали податоците добиени со Анкетата на работна сила која ја спроведува ДЗС, а врз основа на препораките на Меѓународната организација на труд, се вистински показател за невработеоста во земјата, бидејќи базата од која се земаат податоците е пописот од 2002 година. Затоа во трудот се прави компарација на невработеноста, утврдена од страна на ДЗС, врз основа на примена на статистички пристап и невработеноста, утврдена по административен пат, пресметана преку моделот на состојба-текови, а врз основа на податоците од Агенцијата за вработување наРМ, во периодот по Голематарецесија од 2007 година. Резултатите од истражувањето, од аспект на утврдување на невработеноста, ќе дадат една попрегледна слика за состојбите на пазарот на труд во Маедонија и од тој аспект се битни, како за академската и стручната јавност, така и за носителите на економските политики. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, An empirical investigation of selected factors determining the labour productivity in Macedonia(2018-12); Labor productivity is a crucial determinant of one economy’s competitiveness, and it varies across different countries and areas. Productivity growth is important because it contributes to growth in output, income and living standards. There are only two measures which can be used for increasing the level of economic output: one is by applying more labor effort in the production process (such as more jobs) and the second through increases in the productivity of the workforce. Or in other words, it means bringing additional inputs into production; or increase productivity. As labor force growth slows and unemployment remains at relatively low levels, economies increasingly have to enhance productivity in order to maintain the high rates of output and income growth that have become common place over the past few decades. Although there are several reasons for differences in the level of economic development among countries, generally, we can start from the assumption that differences in economic development results from the differences in productivity. At the national level, higher productivity increases living standards as more real income improves people’s ability to consume and demand more goods and services whether they are necessities or luxuries, enjoy leisure, improve housing and education and contribute to social and environmental programs. Despite the significant productivity growth from 2002 to 2008, and again from 2014 to 2017, Macedonia still lags behind the EU average. Macedonia’s labour productivity has negative growth rate from 2017 upwards. It drops by 4.4% in the first quarter compared with a drop of 2.1% in the previous quarter. There are various countries specific case studies and various literature that are exploring the determinants of labour productivity growth in a particular country. This study intends to identify the potential determinants of labour productivity in Macedonia. Based on an extensive literature review, we identify several factors that determine Macedonia’s labour productivity. We quantify the relationship between the productivity growth and physical capital through gross capital formation, human capital through educational structure of employees, foreign direct investments and real wages. On the side of methodology, correlation and regression analysis for testing the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables are used. The fundamental assumption for a clear econometric analysis is the stationarity of data time series and the regression analysis is followed by studying the stationarity of time series using Unit root test. The study is based on time series and the data on empirical analysis is taken from State Office of the Republic of Macedonia and World Bank. The sources of productivity are complex and they differ from country to country. While growth in productivity and in labour utilization are both sources of improvement in living standards, productivity growth can make a major contribution over the long term. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The Impact of the Main Determinants and Changes in Agricultural Labour Productivity in Macedonia(European Scientific Institute, ESI., 2018-04); The aim of this paper is to analyze changes and impacts on the level of labour productivity in the agricultural sector in Macedonia in the period from 2006 to 2017. Labour productivity is an important determinant for establishing the competitiveness of a particular sector or overall economy and helps in creating the necessary conditions for economic development. Agricultural sector in many countries represents the basis for growth in gross domestic product. Agriculture plays a key role in development of the national economy in Macedonia as a third largest sector after services and industry. Therefore, in order to increase the agricultural labour productivity, it is necessary to increase agricultural production, i.e., the part of gross domestic product created by the agriculture sector. In this direction, the paper also analyzes the relationship between agricultural labour productivity and gross domestic product and employment in agriculture. Synthesis and analysis, induction and deduction, descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis are used for the purpose of the paper. The results show that changes in gross domestic product in agricultural sector in Macedonia have a greater impact on agricultural labour productivity for the analyzed period compared to the impact of changes in the number of employees in the agriculture sector where the relationship is weak to moderate. Research results also showed that there is a positive and strong quantitative relationship between agricultural labour productivity growth rate and GDP growth rate in Macedonian economy. Agricultural GDP is the determinant which has to be influenced through intensification of agricultural production in order to increase the agricultural productivity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Evaluating the effects of consolidation of Macedonian mobile markets(Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES), 2018-10); In the last two decades regulatory framework and structures of European telecom markets have significantly changed. The final goal of these changes was to increase competition in the telecoms industry, forcing operators to raise quality of services and reduce their prices. But on the other hand, as a result of the liberalization of the telecommunications market, application of new telecommunication technologies, and as well as the effects of regulatory pricing intervention, telecom operators are faced with shrinking revenues and profitability. Despite traffic growth in the period 2014-2018, revenue levels of telecom companies has remained stagnant. Therefore it is not a surprise the fact that over the period 2002 - 2015 a total of 1024 competition policy cases have arisen in EU telecoms markets, where more than a half are merger control cases. Results from a number of empirical studies for ex-post evaluation of merger decisions, suggest that a merger may have negative price effects and positive effects on investment transformed into better quality of services for consumers. Macedonian telecommunications market was not excluded from this trend of merging between mobile operators. The proposed merger between mobile operators VIP and ONE was cleared with remedies in July 2015. In the public, there is an open debate about the effects of this competition authority’s decision on consumer welfare and market performances. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of the approved merger decision between the second and third mobile operators on market performance and consumer welfare in the Macedonian mobile market. For the purposes of this research, we applied reduced-form econometric methods using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, which is an established and widely used methodology in the ex-post evaluation studies. We compared the evolution of the market competition and performances indicators, both before and after the decision. As a control group we used mobile markets data of selected countries from South East Europe. Analysis Mason DataHub, Eurostat data, OECD, World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database were the main data sources for our analysis. The key outcomes of this research study are particularly important for the regulatory authorities, in the period that is characterized by the introduction and implementation of costly innovations such as 4G and 5G services, and in a context where mobile operators are lobbing for a bigger market consolidation and for a more lenient merger control in order to be able to invest effectively. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Wages inequality in the Republic of Macedonia in a Post Crisis Period(„Oikos Institut“ d.o.o. Bijeljina, 2015)The aim of this paper is to show the distribution of net wages in the Republic of Macedonia and whether the great world economic crisis of 2008 has had an impact on the inequality in the distribution of wages. In this paper it is analyzed the level of inequality in the distribution of wages in Macedonia in 2008 as a year when the economic crisis started in the last quarter, in 2012 as the year in which GDP still has had a negative rate of economic growth and in 2014, when the economy maintained positive economic growth. In the three selected years the analysis is based on examination of the inequality in the distribution of the paid net wages. In the paper, the analysis of inequality in the distribution of net wages is based on determining the distribution of frequencies, constructing the Lorenz curve and the Gini index calculation. The results show that there is a quite expressed inequality in the distribution of net wages in Macedonia, whereas the estimated Gini index is 27.98 in 2008, 26.76 in 2012 and 25.88 in 2014. Thus, it should be kept in mind that the inequality in the distribution of total income is higher and in the analyzed period the Gini index is greater than 40. This points the fact that Macedonia has the highest inequality in the distribution of income compared to all EU member states and candidate countries for EU membership. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Austerity of fiscal stimulus in times of crisis – an old debate without consensus(Institute of Knowledge Management - Skopje, 2017-12); The latest global economic and financial crisis has once again drawn the attention of economists to the debate whether it should be saved or spent in times of crisis. A number of more or less different concepts and schools have been developed in response to the role of the government and the character of the economic policy that needs to be implemented in times of crisis. Regardless of the differences between these concepts, they can all be grouped into two global approaches: interventionism and stimulating on the one hand and liberalism and saving on the other. The first approach, known as the Keynesian concept, advocates the idea of a necessity of fiscal intervention and increased consumption in times of crisis, while the second approach, known as neoliberalism or a monetary concept, is against fiscal intervention and argues that the government should create a stable environment, to refrain from excessive consumption and to stimulate austerity. These two global approaches represent two different perceptions of reality, given that they recommend the use of completely different economic policy instruments to achieve the same goals. Examples of economic crises through history and the stance and reaction of economic policy in such conditions unambiguously show that there is no universal macroeconomic concept that is applicable in all countries and at all times. On the contrary, economic history shows that classical school prevailed at certain times by favoring the concept of "liberal market" over fiscal intervention, while in others the concept of fiscal intervention and increased government consumption prevailed. That is, the past confirms that the liberalism and the concept of fiscal intervention changed after certain periods of time. Usually, the selected and applied concept initially yielded good results, but then it begins to generate serious problems and contradictions, which makes it untenable and requires a change in the direction of economic policy. The issue of choosing economic policy is particularly relevant for certain EU Member States, which, despite the consequences of the latest economic and financial crisis, face a debt crisis. One of the main dilemmas for these countries is whether to pursue an austerity policy that stabilizes public finances but deteriorate the economic growth or a policy of encouraging economic growth through increased consumption, but which additionally increases indebtedness and questions its sustainability and effect on economic growth in the future. The debate is further complicated taking into account Eurozone member states, where national fiscal policy plays a much larger role, given that member states cannot conduct their own monetary policy. The paper examines these two conflicting concepts, citing arguments for and against their application, and explores their practical application during the latest global economic and financial crisis. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Gross fixed capital formation and productivity in Southeastern Europe(Faculty of Economics & Business University of Zagreb, 2019-06); Capital formation is considered to be an important factor of economic growth both in theoretical and empirical literature. It is generally agreed that the main purpose of economic development is to build capital equipment on a sufficient scale to increase productivity in the economy. Therefore, capital formation makes development possible even with increasing productivity. It is also recognized that gross capital formation has a direct, but also an indirect impact on the productivity. Based on an intensive and a comprehensive literature review, the aim of the paper is to examine the impact of fixed capital investments on productivity in the countries of Southeastern Europe in the period from 2000 to 2017. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia are part of the analysis, except Kosovo which is not a subject of the study due to a lack of data. Beside Southeastern Europen countries, the research is done at the European Union level, and Germany and France are also included as a two leading economies in the European Union. The paper starts from the assumption that fixed capital investments determine the marginal labour productivity, which in turn determines the demand for labour and the employment. In other words, greater investments in fixed capital will increase the marginal labour productivity, which will increase the demand for labour and the employment. In the paper, a regression analysis and correlation are implemented in order to determine and predict the impact of fixed asset investments on productivity. Testing of the series of fixed assets investment and productivity is done by applying the Unit Root test using the Augmented Dickey - Fuller test. Also, a cluster analysis is made and the k-mean clustering method is applied. Results of the study show that changes in productivity are largely explained by changes in gross fixed capital formation at European Union level and in Germany and France, and in these countries there is a higher coefficient of correlation between investments in fixed assets and productivity. A high correlation coefficients are also obtained in Southeastern European countries that are members of European Union, primarily Slovenia, Greece and Romania, while in Croatia this coefficient is slightly lower. An only exception from Southeastern European countries that are members of the European Union is Bulgaria, which has a very low coefficient of correlation between investments in fixed assets and productivity. In nonEuropean Union countries of Southeastern Europe (Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania), changes in productivity cannot be generally explained by the changes in fixed capital investments, and in these countries there is a very low correlation coefficient between gross fixed capital formation and productivity. Using the cluster analysis based on the k-mean clustering method, three clusters are defined: Cluster 1: Croatia and Romania; Cluster 2: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia; and Cluster 3: France, Germany, Greece Slovenia and 278 the European Union. Cluster analysis shows that in Cluster 3, which is defined with countries that have high GDP per capita, high employment and low unemployment, the impact of gross fixed capital formation on productivity is greater. On the other hand, in Cluster 2, that includes non-European Union countries (exception is Bulgaria, which is a member of European Union), and is defined with lower GDP per capita, low employment rates and high unemployment, gross fixed capital formation has not a significant impact on productivity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, МАКРОЕКОНОМСКИТЕ ЕФЕКТИ НА ФИСКАЛНАТА ПОЛИТИКА ВО РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНИЈА(Македонска Академија на Науките и Уметностите, 2017); ; ; ;