Faculty of Economics

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    Trade Intensity in Digitally Delivered Services and Economic Complexity
    (2024-12)
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    Toshevska-trpcevska, Katerina
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    Purpose Digitally delivered services have become a pivotal component of global trade, accounting for over 50% of total services exports worldwide as of 2020 (Mourougane, 2021). But how is this digital trade related to the structure of an economy? Despite the growing significance of digital trade, the relationship between trade intensity in digitally delivered services and the structure of an economy remains underexplored (Mourougane, 2021; Dong and Xu, 2022; Zhou et al., 2023; Chiappini and Gaglio, 2024). In this paper, we fill this research gap by examining how exports per capita of digitally delivered services relate to multidimensional economic complexity, encompassing measures for the trade and research structure of an economy (Stojkoski et al., 2023). Understanding this relationship is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance competitiveness in the digital economy (Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009; Hausmann et al., 2014; Hartmann et al., 2017; Hidalgo, 2021; Romero and Gramkow, 2021). Design/methodology/approach We employ a panel regression analysis with time-fixed effects to control unobserved heterogeneity and temporal dynamics across countries and over time. We follow the Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade (Mourougane, 2021) and define digitally delivered services as all international trade transactions that are delivered remotely over computer networks. These range from providing online educational services to cloud computing subscriptions (Stojkoski et al., 2024). Using this definition, we collect data from the BATIS WTO dataset on services (Fortanier et al., 2017) and Eurostat mappings (European Commission. Statistical Office of the European Union., 2021) to calculate per capita exports of digitally delivered services for over 120 countries from 2005 to 2020. We also use data on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the research and trade dimensions from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (Simoes and Hidalgo, 2011). These indexes compare the economic structure of a country to an ensemble of other countries, with higher values implying that the country is more sophisticated compared to the ensemble. We then employ panel regression analysis on average data segmented into four four-year periods: 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2022 in which the dependent variable is the log of the digitally delivered services exports per capita. This methodological approach allows us to investigate the correlation between exports per capita and the economic complexity indices derived from trade and research data, and to study their interaction in explaining digital trade. Findings The analysis reveals a robust positive relationship between economic complexity and digitally delivered services exports per capita (see Table 1 for the regression results). Specifically, according to our final model (including all covariates, Table 1, column 7), a one-unit increase in trade ECI is associated with a 0.733 increase in the log of digitally delivered services exports per capita (p<0.05), while a one-unit increase in research ECI corresponds to a 0.172 increase (p<0.05). The significant positive interaction between trade and research ECIs (coefficient 0.361, p<0.05) suggests that countries with both advanced trade sectors and strong research outputs experience a synergistic boost in digital services exports. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by integrating the structure of an economy through multidimensional economic complexity into the analysis of digitally delivered services trade—a nexus that has been largely overlooked. By developing a novel dataset and combining trade and research ECIs, we provide a comprehensive understanding of their joint impact on digital trade. The findings suggest that enhancing both trade and research sectors can significantly boost a country’s digital services exports. Limitations to our work include potential unobserved variables and data constraints for certain regions. Future research could explore causal relationships and the impact of specific policy interventions on economic complexity and digital trade performance.
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    Labour Market in Terms of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
    (Faculty of Economics - Prilep, 2019-10)
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    Recently, many studies and analysis confirmed that the world is at the beginning of a powerful process of transformation that will radically change our lives, ways of working and communicating.The Fourth Industrial Revolution is expected to improve the computerization of manufacturing industry and focuses on equipping the production with high technology. Three main goals of Industry 4.0 could be highlighted as: (1) Reduction of the human factor in manufacturing thus eliminating human errors. (2) Achieving high level of manufacturing flexibility and creating conditions for designing products that meet the specific requirements of the consumer. (3) Intensification of the production process.This paper aims to present the main trends in this field, to explain the benefits of technology and digitalization for the global economy as well as to elaborate the importance of preparing different segments of society for effects from the Fourth Industrial Revolution onto the global labor market. This study obtains a panel data of six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and USA) for period between 1985 to 2017. The results have shown thatinformation and communications technology and multifactor productivity are variables whohave significant and positive impact on labor productivity while the variable average hours worked per person employed has a negative impact. Additional analysis of the demographic and socio-economic trends shows that the labor market will experience radical changes in the future.
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    Labour Productivity in terms of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
    (Faculty of Economics - Prilep, 2020-06)
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    Recently, many studies and analysis confirmed that the world is at the beginning of a powerful process of transformation that will radically change our lives, ways of working and communicating.The Fourth Industrial Revolution is expected to improve the computerization of manufacturing industry and focuses on equipping the production with high technology. Three main goals of Industry 4.0 could be highlighted as: (1) Reduction of the human factor in manufacturing thus eliminating human errors. (2) Achieving high level of manufacturing flexibility and creating conditions for designing products that meet the specific requirements of the consumer. (3) Intensification of the production process.This paper aims to present the main trends in this field, to explain the benefits of technology and digitization for the global economy as well as to elaborate the importance of preparing different segments of society for effects from the Fourth Industrial Revolution onto the global labour market. This study obtains a panel data of six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and USA) for period between 1985 to 2017. The results have shown that information and communications technology and multifactor productivity are variables who have significant and positive impact on labour productivity while the variable average hours worked per person employed has a negative impact. Additional analysis of the demographic and socio-economic trends shows that the labour market will experience radical changes in the future.
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    The Impact of ICT on Labour Productivity – Europe vs. U.S.
    (EDP Sciences, 2021-12-16)
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    Research background: The European economy has been experiencing declining productivity growth rates since the 1970s despite high investments in information and communication technologies (ICT). Investments in ICT are considered a key driver of productivity growth that serves as a basis for further improvements in living standards. However, despite the emergence of new technologies and industries, especially after 1995, European productivity growth has slowed and lagged behind the United States. The critical question is why? Purpose of the article: This article aims to examine the effects of ICT on the European labour market in the period when machines and systems such as artificial intelligence, new information technologies, the Internet of things, and other technologies are becoming increasingly interconnected and intertwined. Additionally, the article examines the key reasons why European productivity lags behind the U.S. and explains them. Methods: The panel regression method analyzes the productivity lag of selected European developed countries and emerging markets in 2007-2019. The article additionally makes a qualitative analysis of the benefits of new technologies on productivity in Europe compared to the U.S. Findings & Value added: The results of the econometric analysis applied in this article confirm the positive but insignificant impact of ICT investments on the labour productivity of the case of European developed countries in the post-Great Recession period. Thus, the article fills the gap in the research literature regarding the relationship between ICT investments and the labour productivity of selected European countries.