Faculty of Economics
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Item type:Publication, Western Balkans countries income convergence in the context of EU membership: Opportunity or just a dream for increasing welfare?(2018); Antonovska, A.The Western Balkan countries face relatively low levels of income over a longer period of time, indicating insufficient dynamics and intensity of income convergence, compared to the developed EU economies. The issue of income convergence of Western Balkan countries is particularly important in the context of their EU membership. The paper tests the existence and dynamics of income convergence of the Western Balkan Economies using both sigma (σ) and the beta (β) measures of real convergence. The evaluation of the appropriateness of the income convergence dynamics of the Western Balkan Economies is derived on the basis of a comparative analysis with the achievements of the New Member States, Baltic countries and EU - 14 in the last 20 years. The results outline that Western Balkan countries are stagnating, they have the slowest convergence and are faced to structural problems. The conclusion is that the membership of the Western Balkans in EU will contribute to faster growth and income convergence of this region. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Determinants of Real Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe(University of “St. Kliment Ohridski” Bitola, Republic of Macedonia, 2016); ; This paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergencethrough an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence. However, quite surprisingly, we find that the close trade integration with the EU is associated with lower level of real convergence. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Determinants of Liquidity and its Relationship with Profitability – The Case of Macedonian Banking Sector(2019); Hristovski, GoranThis paper deals with the liquidity and profitability of the Macedonian banking sector and attempts to identify the determinants of liquidity mainly focusing on the relationship between profitability and liquidity. First, we analyzed the level of liquidity and profitability and we found that the Macedonian banking system is characterized by high liquidity and relatively high profitability compared with the banking systems of the countries in the region and the more developed economies. Furthermore, the paper examines the determinants of liquidity. The empirical analysis is carried out through the use of the dynamic panel analysis based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) methodology on a dataset of overall banking sector operating in Macedonia in the period from 2007 to 2017. The study uses seven factors as potential determinants of banks liquidity, five of them are internal banks variables (lagged value of liquidity, bank profitability, size of the bank, capital adequacy and non-performing loans) while two of them are macroeconomic variables (GDP growth rate and Central bank reference interest rate). The study showed that profitability is one of the most important factors influencing liquidity in the Macedonian banks. The other determinants with important positive effects on liquidity are lagged value of liquidity, non-performing loans and Central bank interest rate but, to a somewhat lower extent. On the other hand, only the size of the bank is significantly inversely associated with bank liquidity. The capital adequacy and GDP growth rate are not statistically significant factors of Macedonian banks liquidity. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Western Balkans countries income convergence in the context of EU membership – dynamics and determinants(Transition Academia Press, 2019); Antovska, A.The Western Balkan countries face relatively low levels of income over a longer period of time, indicating insufficient dynamics and intensity of income convergence, compared to the developed EU economies. The issue of income convergence of Western Balkan countries is particularly important in the context of their EU membership. The paper tests the existence and dynamics of income convergence of the Western Balkan Economies using both sigma (σ) and the beta (β) measures of real convergence. The evaluation of the appropriateness of the income convergence dynamics of the Western Balkan Economies is derived on the basis of a comparative analysis with the achievements of the New Member States, Baltic countries and EU - 14 in the last 20 years. The results outline that Western Balkan countries are stagnating, and they have the slowest convergence. In addition, this paper makes an overview by fixed effects panel data model of the determinants of the convergence process in the Western Balkan countries to the EU-14, taking them as complementary part of this proces. The results show that Western Balkan countries should focus mainly on agriculture and banking sector reforms in order to speed-up the convergence process. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The Polak’s monetary model and its application on Macedonian case(Institute of Knowledge Management Skopje, 2019)Macroeconomic stability is very important for each economy because it constitutes the basis of sustainable economic growth and development. It means stable prices with a low level of inflation (internal stability), a stable foreign exchange rate, a relatively low and sustainable current account deficit in the balance of payments and a solvent position in the external indebtedness of the economy (external stability). International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides financial support to countries that have problems with internal and external stability. The IMF approach to macroeconomic stabilization is based on a so-called “monetary approach” to the balance of payments. The first IMF model designed for dealing with balance of payments disequilibrium was the Polak’s model on monetary programming. Its purpose is to integrate monetary, income and balance of payments analysis, and it represents the basis of the conditionality applied to IMF’s credit arrangements. This model investigates and determines the effect on income and balance of payments arising from the two important variables in the economy: (1) changes in domestic bank credits, and (2) changes in exports of goods and services. In other words, the model indicates what macroeconomics policies are required to achieve a given set of outcomes i.e. it determines policy targets consistent with explicit macroeconomic objectives. It consists of a set of four equations and contains two behavioral relationships: the demand for money function and the function of the demand for imports, and two identities: for the money supply and for the balance of payments. As such, Polak's monetary model extends classical quantitative money theory to the example of an open economy. Republic of North Macedonia, as a developing country that is remarkably open to the world (large share of export and import of goods and services in GDP) and with close cooperation with the IMF, the application of so-called financial programming based on Polak’s monetary model is of special importance. Based on the theoretical elaboration of the equations contained in the Polak’s monetary model, the paper attempts for its application to the case of Republic of North Macedonia and tries to determine and quantify the dependence of the changes in net foreign assets (foreign reserves) and gross domestic product (GDP) from the changes in domestic credits of the Macedonian banking sector. For that purpose, the data on gross domestic product (GDP), money supply (M4) and exports of goods and services for the period 2003-2018 were used from the State statistical office and National bank of the Republic of North Macedonia. By calculating the values of income velocity of money and propensity to import, the interdependence of domestic credits with gross domestic product and net foreign assets of the banking sector is calculated and analyzed. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Real Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: An Empirical Analysis(Faculty of Economics, Skopje, 2016); ; ; The process of integration of the former transition economies in the European Union (EU) is associated with numerous problems and challenges. The readiness and suitability of the country for integration within the EU is directly dependent on the achieved nominal and real convergence. Without this convergence, the integration process would face in the future risks of asymmetric shocks, which would generate poor economic performance in the absence of alternative adjustment mechanisms. This paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergence through an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe(2017); ; This paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergencethrough an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence. However, quite surprisingly, we find that the close trade integration with the EU is associated with lower level of real convergence. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
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