Faculty of Economics
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Item type:Publication, DETERMINANTS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES: A PANEL ANALYSIS(The Faculty of Economics in Niš,, 2019)Despite increasing income per capita, the EU candidate and potential candidate countries remain confronted with high levels of income inequality. The purpose of our paper is to identify the main determinants of income inequality among the EU candidate countries. In addition to macroeconomic factors, we also analyze the impact of demographic variables to provide more reliable estimates. Using panel data analysis with fixed effects in the period 2005-2017 for three EU candidate countries (North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey) we find that the unemployment rate, the level of economic development and the investment rate are the main determinants whose increase leads to a bigger income differentiation in the analyzed countries. The government indebtedness has also a statistically significant, but a negative impact on income inequality. The other two macroeconomic variables in the model – the terms of trade and inflation are statistically insignificant. Among the demographic factors, population growth and education significantly affect income inequality among the EU candidate countries. The obtained results suggest that a sustainable economic growth combined with active measures in the labor market and the improvement of education level of the population could lead to more equal income distribution. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Assessing the future migration potential of the EU candidate countries(University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, 2010-04)In the realm of the EU accession, the EU candidate countries and EU are facing a number of challenges raised by the potential migration from these countries to EU. In this paper we try to answer the question if the fear of large migration pressure from these countries to EU is justified by estimating the migration potential of Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey to Germany, as the most dominant EU receiving country of immigrants in the period 1997-2007. The results from the extended gravity model revealed that the ratio between unemployment rate in the country of origin and the country of destination as well as the social network effects are the main economic determinants of migration from EU candidate countries to Germany. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Resampling methods for labour force survey(Statističko društvo Srbije, 2008)Labor force survey is one of the most important surveys carried out in all countries. Its main purpose is to estimate quantities such as the unemployment rate and the number of people in work. Labor force survey is focused both in estimates at a given time and in changes between two successive time period. However, it is essential to know the precision of the estimates and their corresponding variances. In order to estimate the variance in a complex survey, where the sample is reweighted to match some known marginal quantities based on age, sex and geographical location, we apply the resampling methods. This paper reviews the resampling methods for the analysis of labour force survey that have been proposed in the literature—the jackknife, balanced repeated replication and the bootstrap and discuss the extent to which they are useful. Although the resampling methods may be useful in solving of some problems, there is no evidence that they are generally useful techniques for the analysis of labour force surveys - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The impact of FDI on export performance: Empirical evidence from EU candidate countries(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 2009-08)In the last several years EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey) have been experiencing a constant growth of both exports and foreign direct investments. The growth of FDI flows to EU candidate countries partly reflects steps taken by those countries in the framework of market-oriented reform processes, often associated with EU accession. While there are numerous theoretical and empirical studies about the relationship between FDI and export performance, there are no studies treating this issue in the case of EU candidate countries as a group of countries. The objective of this paper is to bridge the gap by analyzing the relationship between FDI and export performance. In order to explore the main determinants of export performance and to provide econometric estimation of the direct as well as special effects of FDI on export, we use pooled data for the EU candidate countries in the period 1997-2006 and created an econometric model. The results of the estimated model, which show that FDI indeed have had a positive impact on export performance of all EU candidate countries, provide insightful information for the policy makers of these countries in the process of formulation of policies for attracting more FDI in the future. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Статистички концепти и техники во процесот на контрола и управување со квалитетот(Универзитет Св. Кирил и Методиј во Скопје, Економски факултет-Скопје, 2002-06) - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Dating, detecting and forecasting financial crises in the EU accession countries(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 2011-08)The recent global financial crisis has rekindled the interest of economists and policymakers in forecast modelling. In this paper we try to answer the following two questions: 1. Can an early warning system (EWS) model predict the occurrence of a financial crisis in a specified time horizon in the EU candidate countries? and 2.What are the best performing predictors of financial crisis in this group of countries? By specifying a binomial logit model based on actual quarterly panel data for the four EU candidate countries (Croatia, Iceland, Macedonia and Turkey) over the sample period of January 2005 (2005 Q1) to June 2010 (2010 Q2), we find the following four explanatory variables: the GDP growth rate, the trade balance as a percentage of GDP, the ratio of bank deposits to GDP and the budget balance as a percentage of GDP the best performing early warning indicators of financial crises incidence. Furthermore, we find that the estimated binomial logit model has a strong predictive power. Based on that fact, we conclude that early warning indicators of financial crisis do work. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Statistical process control with the help of international staistical standards(University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Zenica, 2001-11)Statistical process control (SPC) is a collection of statistical techniques and control algorithms that are used to improve the performance of a process, and to reduce variation of final product parameters. The methods of SPC are used to control variation in a manipulated process input variable or in an in-process product parameter that is correlated with a final product parameter. Since the pioneering work of Walter A. Shewhart in the 1920s many techniques of SPC have been proposed. Some of them have acquired wide recognition and have been incorporated in international standards. Observations of industrial practice show that SPC methods are sometimes used in an inappropriate way. Therefore, the promotion of internationally recognised standards seems to be of great importance. The aim of this paper is to present some of the SPC methods that are described in the international ISO standards. When there is a need to design more effective procedures, the computer decision support system, which is developed under the framework of COPERNICUS CP93:12074 project by the team of specialists from Germany and Poland, can be used. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Gravity Model of the Macedonian Export(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 2007-08)The current trend towards conclusion of regional trade agreements as well as the economic and political transformations of Central and Eastern Europe countries which initiate their integration in the world trade system has revitalized the interest in the gravity model of the international trade. The aim of this article is to estimate the Macedonian export using the gravity model based on the bilateral trade movements between Macedonia and its importing countries in 2005 based on the data from the State Statistical Office of Macedonia. Using the equation based on one country, we avoid the problems which appear with cross section and panel specification of the gravity model. The estimation of the gravity model has been done using the statistical software package Statgraphics Plus 5.1. According to the results of the model and the ratio between the actual and potential export, some directions for improvement of Macedonian export in the future are suggested. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Econometric Modeling of Volatility on the Macedonian Stock Exchange(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 2003-08)For proper valuation of risk to which the portfolio of financial assets is exposed, it is necessary to forecast the second moments of financial time series, that is variabilities. The empirical investigations show that financial time series are heteroskedastic, i.e. their volatility is not constant in time. For that reason the appropriate mathematical methods were developed which take this effect into account. In this paper we study one particular member of GARCH family of models that successfully describe heteroscedasticity, i.e. GARCH (1,1) model. We show the significance of the model parameters and also make the connection between the frequently used EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) model which is a special case of IGARCH model (integrated GARCH). Using the maximum likelihood method we calculate the model parameters for Alkaloid ordinary shares, Komercijalna banka shares, Macedonian stock exchange share price index (MIB) and index S and P500. By using these models we show how one can improve risk-forecasting process - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The barriers to acceptance of statistical methods of quality control in the Macedonian manufacturing industry(International Statistical Instititute (ISI), 2001-08)This paper reveals that industry in the Republic of Macedonia makes surprisingly little use of statistical methods of quality control (SQC) and describes the reasons for its low usage. In summary, the major barrier preventing companies from introducing SQC is lack of knowledge. Whilst this was often not the first reason given, much circumstantial evidence from questionnaires and direct evidence from interviews suggest that decisions are often taken on the basis of very little or no knowledge. Clearly, there is an urgent need to increase awareness and knowledge of SQC