Faculty of Economics
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Item type:Publication, “Development acupuncture:” mapping the network structure of multidimensional poverty(Informa UK Limited, 2025-07-17); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Optimizing Economic Complexity(2025-03-06); César A. HidalgoEfforts to apply economic complexity to identify diversification opportunities often rely on diagrams comparing the relatedness and complexity or products, technologies, or industries. Yer, the use of these diagrams is not based on empirical or theoretidal evidence supporting some notion of optimality. Here, we introduce an optimization-based framework that identifies diversification opportunities by minimizing a cost function capturing the constraints imposed by an economy's pattern of specialization. We show that the resulting portfolios often differ from those implied by relatedness-complexity diagrams, providing a target-oriented optimization layer to the economic complexity toolkit. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases in Macedonia?(Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2025-12); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Measures of physical mixing evaluate the economic mobility of the typical individual(Elsevier BV, 2024-03)Stojkoski, ViktorMeasures of economic mobility represent aggregate values for how individual wealth changes over time. As such, these measures may not describe the feasibility of a typical individual to change their wealth. To address this limitation, we introduce mixing, a concept from statistical physics, as a relevant phenomenon for quantifying how individuals move across the wealth distribution. We display the relationship between mixing and mobility both theoretically and using data. By studying the properties of an established model of wealth dynamics, we show that some individuals can move across the distribution when wealth is a non-mixing observable. Only in the mixing case every individual is able to move across the whole wealth distribution. There is also a direct equivalence between measures of mixing and the magnitude of the standard measures of economic mobility, but the opposite is not true. We then describe an empirical method for estimating the mixing properties of wealth dynamics in practice. We use this method to present a pedagogical application using the USA longitudinal data. This, approach, even though limited in data availability, leads to results suggesting that wealth in the USA is either non-mixing or that it takes a very long time for the individuals to mix within the distribution. These results showcase how mixing can be used in tandem with measures of mobility for drawing conclusions about the extent of mobility across the whole distribution. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Empirical Determinants of Innovation in European Countries: Firm-level Analysis Based on CIS 2018(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2024-06); Stojkoski, ViktorThis study examines the role of perceptions about environmental regulations and their influence on the innovative performance and productivity of firms in Germany, Southern Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe. Utilizing the CDM model for innovative performance and data stemming from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS), we explore the alignment with the Porter hypothesis, which posits that well-designed environmental regulations can stimulate technological innovation and enhance market competitiveness. Our findings present a mixed view: in Germany, positive perceptions about environmental regulations correlate with the initiation of innovation activities, contributing to an increase in labour productivity. This supports the Porter hypothesis, evidencing that regulations can lead to beneficial ‘innovation offsets’ such as reduced resource use and pollution. Conversely, in Southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, the perceptions about these regulations on innovation activities are insignificant, with no considerable correlation observed between perceptions about environmental regulations and innovation output. Our findings are crucial for policymakers, environmental regulators, and business leaders aiming to leverage environmental regulations to boost innovation and competitiveness within their regions. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Estimating digital product trade through corporate revenue data(Nature Communications, 2024-06-19); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Augmenting the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates through machine learning(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2024-09-16); A. Hidalgo, CésarCan we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here, we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in Europe and North America for the past seven centuries starting from data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of hundreds of thousands of historical figures. We build an elastic net regression model to perform feature selection and generate out-of-sample estimates that explain 90% of the variance in known historical income levels. We use this model to generate GDP per capita estimates for countries, regions, and time periods for which these data are not available and externally validate our estimates by comparing them with four proxies of economic output: urbanization rates in the past 500 y, body height in the 18th century, well-being in 1850, and church building activity in the 14th and 15th century. Additionally, we show our estimates reproduce the well-known reversal of fortune between southwestern and northwestern Europe between 1300 and 1800 and find this is largely driven by countries and regions engaged in Atlantic trade. These findings validate the use of fine-grained biographical data as a method to augment historical GDP per capita estimates. We publish our estimates with CI together with all collected source data in a comprehensive dataset. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Trade Intensity in Digitally Delivered Services and Economic Complexity(2024-12); ; - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Crises(2024-07-12); In the last two decades, numerous fiscal crises have profoundly affected the trajectories of many nations. Yet, the susceptibility to such crises has not been uniform across countries: with many reaching different levels of severity and frequency of fiscal disruptions (Medas et al., 2018; Petrova et al., 2011). Understanding the varied factors that contribute to fiscal resilience is crucial for guiding policy interventions. In this context, a growing body of research suggests that the economic complexity of a country plays an important role in its stability and resilience. Economic complexity, assessed through methods that analyze the geographic distribution of economic activities, serves as an indicator of a nation's productive structure (Balland et al., 2022; Hausmann et al., 2014; Hidalgo, 2021; Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009). This structure captures multiple economic, social, and environmental factors that should be critical for an economy's stability and its ability to withstand fiscal shocks. Indeed, countries with higher complexities have been found to be less fragile to fiscal crises (Gomez-Gonzalez et al., 2023b), have lower volatility in economic growth (Güneri and Yalta, 2021; Maggioni et al., 2016), have lower inflation (Al Marhubi, 2021), and lower sovereign yield spread (Gomez-Gonzalez et al., 2023a; Özmen, 2019). But all the research on the ability of economic complexity to explain fiscal outcomes comes from using international trade data (Hausmann et al., 2014). While trade data has been the standard in international comparisons of productive structure, a more recent approach suggests a multidimensional method to economic complexity (Stojkoski et al., 2023). The idea behind this approach is that relying solely on trade data can obscure vital aspects of an economy’s structure, particularly in innovative activities such as technological production and research output. By integrating data on these activities, the multidimensional approach captures a fuller spectrum of activities, thereby providing a more accurate assessment of the complexity of a country and its impact on economic outcomes. Here, we explore the role of multidimensional economic complexity, captured through two dimension: trade and research1, on the likelihood of a country to mitigate a fiscal crisis. By utilizing hazard duration analysis and a comprehensive dataset covering 131 countries and over 230 fiscal crisis episodes from 1995 to 2021, we find evidence that multidimensional economic complexity significantly reduces the probability of experiencing a financial crisis. Namely, our analysis suggests that the individual dimensions of trade and research alone are not robustly related with the likelihood of a country to experience a fiscal crisis (see Table 1, columns 1-3, 6-8). In contrast, it is their interaction that has the largest explanatory power: countries that score highly in both the trade and research dimension have the lowest chance to have a fiscal crisis (Table 1, columns 4-5). Interestingly, we also find that having a developed economy in one dimension actually has a positive impact on the chance for a fiscal crisis. This could be potentially a result of neglecting other dimensions – a robust economy should be complex in multiple dimensions. These results are statistically robust when including additional controls that may affect the chance of a fiscal crisis: the regulatory quality of the country, the interest expenses as a % of GDP, the real GDP growth, and the rule of law. Our findings underscore the importance of the multidimensional approach to economic complexity in structural resilience and safeguarding against fiscal instability. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The role of immigrants, emigrants and locals in the historical formation of European knowledge agglomerations(Informa UK Limited, 2023-11-27); Hidalgo, César A.