Institute of Geography

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High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2025-03-12)
Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
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Tramblay, Yves
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Reig, Fergus
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González-Hidalgo, José C.
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Beguería, Santiago
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Seasonal variability changes and trends in minimum discharge for Western Balkan rivers
(Elsevier BV, 2025-08)
Leščešen, Igor
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Gnjato, Slobodan
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Vujačić, Duško
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Petrović, Ana M.
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GIS In the hydromorphology analysis of selected meanders of the Crna reka
(University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Science, 2024-12)
Kuzmanoski, Arse
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Manevska, Emilija
<jats:p>Hydromorphological changes in river systems, particularly in the context of meanders, are crucial for understanding the dynamics of fluvial environments. Meandering is a natural process in lowland areas where rivers form curved, sinusoidal flows driven by the complex interaction of hydraulic forces, sediment transport and bank erosion. These changes alter the physical morphology of rivers, influencing water quality and flood risks. The meandering process of the Crna Reka can be accessed through the processing and analysis of topographic maps and satellite imagery from the Landsat mission (1983–2013) and Sentinel-2 mission (2018–2023). Parameters analyzed include river channel width, the central flow line within a given sector, the sinuosity of the river channel, the radius of curvature of river bends, the length of meandering belts, the width of meandering channels, and riverbed migrations. Between 1964 and 2023, an increase in the sinuosity coefficient, a rise in the number of bends from 10 to 23, changes in the radius of curvature from 271 m to 577 m, and alterations in the length and width of meandering were observed. Significant lateral erosion on the right bank and dominant sedimentation on the left bank were also evident. Understanding these processes is crucial for predicting future river flow changes and mitigating potential environmental impacts.</jats:p>
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ANTHROPOGENIC PRESSURES ON AIR QUALITY IN THE SKOPJE AGGLOMERATION
(Macedonian Geographical Society, 2025-02-01)
Manevska, Emilija
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Kuzmanoski, Arse
Air pollution in the Skopje agglomeration represents a decades-long, complex problem, which requires a profound approach. The expansion of the urban space, which has been especially intensified in the last decade, as well as other socio-economic factors in the capital, have led to an additional serious threat to the health of the population through air pollution. This paper aims to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of the Skopje agglomeration, which exert a great pressure on the environment, and are reflected with the greatest consequences on the air quality in the agglomeration. The location for the research was determined due to the fact that the largest population of residents from the Republic of North Macedonia is concentrated in the Skopje agglomeration and it has high concentrations of air pollutants from all types of pollution sources and pollutants, where the concentration of the population and industrial facilities cause a threat to the quality of the basic components of the environment.
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Meteorological Parameters versus PM10: StatisticalAnalysis of the City of Skopje, Republic of NorthMacedonia Using Multiple Linear Regression
(HARD Publishing Company, 2025-06-18)
Manevska, Emilija
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Kuzmanoski, Arse
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Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index
(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2024-05-01)
Aleksova, Bojana
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Marković, Slobodan B.
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Cvetković, Vladimir M.
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors.</jats:p>
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Multi-hazard modeling of erosion and landslide susceptibility at the national scale in the example of North Macedonia
(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2024-11-01)
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Aleksova, Bojana
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Lukić, Tin
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Dragićević, Slavoljub
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Valjarević, Aleksandar
Due to favorable natural conditions and human impact, the territory of North Macedonia is very susceptible to natural hazards. Steep hillslopes combined with soft rocks (schists on the mountains; sands and sandstones in depressions), erodible soils, semiarid continental climate, and sparse vegetation cover give a high potential for soil erosion and landslides. For this reason, this study presents a multi-hazard approach to geohazard modeling on the national extent in the example of North Macedonia. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems, relevant data about the entire research area were employed to analyze and assess soil erosion and susceptibility to landslides and identify areas prone to both hazards. Using the Gavrilović Erosion Potential Method (EPM), an average value of 0.36 was obtained for the erosion coefficient <jats:italic>Z</jats:italic>, indicating low to moderate susceptibility to erosion. However, a significant area of the country (9.6%) is susceptible to high and excess erosion rates. For the landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA), the Analytical hierarchy process approach is combined with the statistical method (frequency ratio), showing that 29.3% of the territory belongs to the zone of high and very high landslide susceptibility. Then, the accuracy assessment is performed for both procedures (EPM and LSA), showing acceptable reliability. By overlapping both models, a multi-hazard map is prepared, indicating that 22.3% of North Macedonia territory is highly susceptible to erosion and landslides. The primary objective of multi-hazard modeling is to identify and delineate hazardous areas, thereby aiding in activities to reduce the hazards and mitigate future damage. This becomes particularly significant when considering the impact of climate change, which is associated with increased landslide and erosion susceptibility. The approach based on a national level presented in this work can provide valuable information for regional planning and decision-making processes.
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Unveiling Torrential Flood Dynamics: A Comprehensive Study of Spatio-Temporal Patterns in the Šumadija Region, Serbia
(MDPI AG, 2024-03-29)
Petrović, Ana M.
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Leščešen, Igor
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<jats:p>This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of flood frequency and a spatio-temporal characterization of historical torrential floods in the Šumadija region using water discharge datasets and documented events. A chronology of 344 recorded torrential flood events, spanning from 1929 to 2020, illustrates the region’s vulnerability, with a death toll exceeding 43. The study defines the intra-annual primary and secondary peaks of torrential flood occurrences and explains their spatial distribution. Furthermore, the identification of suitable probability distribution functions underscores the necessity of tailored approaches for effective flood risk management in this diverse geographical environment. The study employed Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) and goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) tests, to assess the frequency and magnitude of flood events and evaluate diverse distribution functions. The main results include the identification of suitable probability distribution functions for each river within the region, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches in flood risk management. Additionally, discharge values for various return periods offer crucial insights for informed decision-making in flood risk management and infrastructure planning.</jats:p>
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Characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in North Macedonia: change analysis and correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (1951–2010)
(Idojaras, 2024)
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Hall, Julia
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Arse Kuzmanoski, Ana M. Petrović
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Manevska, Emilija
<jats:p>Studying the spatiotemporal precipitation characteristics in North Macedonia (1951–2010) is important as no spatially concurrent precipitation changes across the Balkan Peninsula have been identified. North Macedonia lies at the intersection between Mediterranean and continental climate zones and an improved understanding might help to better understand the regional precipitation patterns. The analysis shows a spatially consistent, high inter-annual variability, which makes trend detection difficult. Statistically significant decreasing trends were only found in seasonal precipitation at three stations. Changes in all other precipitation series were non-significant. Trends in winter, spring, and at annual scale are generally decreasing, whereas in summer are increasing. To better understand possible mechanisms behind the observed variability and change, correlations with the North Atlantic Ocsillation (NAO) were assessed. Significant and regionally concurrent correlations were detected. A strong correlation of the previous winter NAO-index with spring precipitation was found, which is valuable information for anticipatory water resources management in the region.</jats:p>
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Late Pleistocene glacial advances, equilibrium-line altitude changes and paleoclimate in the Jakupica Mts (North Macedonia)
(Elsevier BV, 2022-09)
Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger, Zsófia
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Temovski, Marjan
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Kern, Zoltán
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Madarász, Balázs
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