Institute of Geography

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Start date: 2022Language: search.filters.language.English (United States)

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    Item type:Publication,
    Unveiling Torrential Flood Dynamics: A Comprehensive Study of Spatio-Temporal Patterns in the Šumadija Region, Serbia
    (MDPI AG, 2024-03-29)
    Petrović, Ana M.
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    Leščešen, Igor
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    <jats:p>This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of flood frequency and a spatio-temporal characterization of historical torrential floods in the Šumadija region using water discharge datasets and documented events. A chronology of 344 recorded torrential flood events, spanning from 1929 to 2020, illustrates the region’s vulnerability, with a death toll exceeding 43. The study defines the intra-annual primary and secondary peaks of torrential flood occurrences and explains their spatial distribution. Furthermore, the identification of suitable probability distribution functions underscores the necessity of tailored approaches for effective flood risk management in this diverse geographical environment. The study employed Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) and goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) tests, to assess the frequency and magnitude of flood events and evaluate diverse distribution functions. The main results include the identification of suitable probability distribution functions for each river within the region, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches in flood risk management. Additionally, discharge values for various return periods offer crucial insights for informed decision-making in flood risk management and infrastructure planning.</jats:p>
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    Characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in North Macedonia: change analysis and correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (1951–2010)
    (Idojaras, 2024)
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    Hall, Julia
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    Arse Kuzmanoski, Ana M. Petrović
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    Manevska, Emilija
    <jats:p>Studying the spatiotemporal precipitation characteristics in North Macedonia (1951–2010) is important as no spatially concurrent precipitation changes across the Balkan Peninsula have been identified. North Macedonia lies at the intersection between Mediterranean and continental climate zones and an improved understanding might help to better understand the regional precipitation patterns. The analysis shows a spatially consistent, high inter-annual variability, which makes trend detection difficult. Statistically significant decreasing trends were only found in seasonal precipitation at three stations. Changes in all other precipitation series were non-significant. Trends in winter, spring, and at annual scale are generally decreasing, whereas in summer are increasing. To better understand possible mechanisms behind the observed variability and change, correlations with the North Atlantic Ocsillation (NAO) were assessed. Significant and regionally concurrent correlations were detected. A strong correlation of the previous winter NAO-index with spring precipitation was found, which is valuable information for anticipatory water resources management in the region.</jats:p>