Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/5967
Title: An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries
Authors: Bucevska, Vesna 
Keywords: Financial crisis, early warning system model, logit model, the EU candidate countries
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: Prague Development Center
Journal: Business and Economic Horizons, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants to outbreak of financial crises in the EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey) and to identify the best-performing early warning indicators of financial crises. We have estimated a binomial logit model of the three EU candidate countries for the period 2005Q1 to 2009Q4 using actual quarterly data. It has been found that the capital account indicators (gross external debt relative to export) and the financial sector variables (the domestic loans and the total bank deposits in relation to GDP) have the highest contribution of all early warning indicators, which is in line with the previous studies of financial shocks in emerging markets. The obtained empirical results give support to the thesis that financial crises in the EU candidate countries can not be solely explained and predicted by only one group of variables, but by a number of different types of indicators. Based on our empirical findings, the EU candidate countries are strongly suggested to decrease their stock of external debt to GNP and to continually analyze and close monitor the financial deepening processes in their countries.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/5967
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Economics 03: Journal Articles / Статии во научни списанија

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
BEH_Vol4_MACEDONIA_Vesna_Bucevska_Crisis_EarlyWarning_Model (1).pdf249 kBAdobe PDFThumbnail
View/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

13
checked on Feb 23, 2020

Google ScholarTM

Check


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.