Tonovska, Jasna
Preferred name
Tonovska, Jasna
Official Name
Tonovska, Jasna
17 results
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Item type:Publication, “Determinants of the Bilateral Trade Flows of North Macedonia – A Gravity Model Approach”(2021); ; ; The paper makes an in detail overview of the structure of the trade exchange of goods of Macedonia and explores the determinants of its bilateral trade flows using the gravity model. The analysis includes data on 40 trade partners of Macedonia in the period from 2005-2019. The used variables in the model are: GDP per capita difference, population, distance and relative endowments of factors of production (capital, land and labour). In most of the analyzed regressions the coefficients on determinants such as GDP per capita difference and population are positive and their impact upon the bilateral trade (as dependent variable) is statistically significant. Intensity of Macedonian trade decreases in regard of the distance from a trade partner and increases in partner’s size – the country tends to trade more with lager countries. In our analysis we included three dummy variables such as: membership in the EU and in CEFTA-2006 and common language. The impact of the possible membership in the EU is clearly positive and statistically significant. Being a candidate country for full EU membership, Macedonia trades more with EU trade partners rather than with the neigbouring countries, members of CEFTA-2006. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Analyzing the relationship between trade openess and economic growth in North Macedonia: a SVAR approach(Faculty of Economics of East Sarajevo, 2024); ; The relationship between trade openness and economic growth is complex. We employ a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model using quarterly data for the period from 2005 to 2022 to estimate the impact of trade openness on the economic growth in North Macedonia. The study's findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between trade openness and economic development in the short and long run. The complexity of this relationship highlights an adverse impact on countries specialising in low-quality production or those with low levels of human capital accumulation, such as North Macedonia. The dynamic effects of shocks to trade openness on interest rates, consumer price index, interest rates, labour force, and exchange rate are investigated using impulse response functions. The paper suggests that North Macedonia's trade strategy requires reorientation towards trade diversification, attracting export-oriented FDIs, and fostering regional trade integration to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Estimating Trade Facilitation in a Regional Integration Initiative: Leveraging the Logistics Performance Index(2024-03); ; ; This study examines trade determinants, with a particular focus on logistics within the context of a regional integration initiative. A gap in the literature concerning the application of gravity models to the TRACECA initiative is identified through the literature review. Subsequently, an analysis of the legal framework underpinning TRACECA is undertaken. Utilizing the World Bank’s Logistic Performance Index (LPI) within a gravity model framework, the study evaluates the impact of trade facilitation within the TRACECA region. Findings indicate positive associations between trade and GDP, common language, and shared borders, while distance exerts a negative influence. The research underscores the role of the LPI in facilitating trade within TRACECA, advocating for collaborative endeavors to enhance logistics, remove latent barriers, and streamline customs procedures. Furthermore, the study advocates for increased investment to strengthen TRACECA’s trade facilitation initiatives, emphasizing the necessity of mutual political commitment to advance regional trade. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, THE IMPACT OF TRADE FACILITATION INDICATORS ON TRADE BETWEEN CEFTA-2006 MEMBERS(2022); ; ; The European financial and economic crisis interrupted the boost of trade within CEFTA-2006, and diverted trade flows from within the region toward the EU market. Currently, Western Balkan economies record a high level of economic integration with the EU which accounts for almost 2/3 of their total trade exchange of goods, while the trade exchange within CEFTA -2006 falls between 10-15% of the total trade exchange of goods of its member-states. Changes in the legal texts of CEFTA-2006 initiated by the so-called Berlin Process, and the effort for deepening regional integration according to the latest Action Plan (2020) envisaged the creation of a Common Regional Market based on EU rules by 2024. The impact of the creation of a Common Regional Market within CEFTA-2006 upon the economic welfare of each of the member-states is still unclear. Thus all estimations provided vague, ambiguous and unclear results and recommendations which did not help overcome the already present reluctant attitude. The latest 2021 Open Balkan Initiative in which participate only Albania, Macedonia and Serbia brought even more confusion and resentment by the other four CEFTA-2006 member-states. The aim of this paper is to elaborate the possibilities that might be open by the latest regional integration initiatives in regard of boosting regional trade exchange of goods. In the last two decades, it was recognized that enhanced trade liberalization might be achieved by undertaking trade facilitation measures. The effects of the implementation of these measures are expected to be of greater significance for increasing regional trade exchange in comparison to the elimination of all other trade barriers, including tariffs. Previous research in this field confirmed that the elimination of certain customs and administrative barriers within the Western Balkan region had a significant positive impact on trade. We apply the gravity model of international trade to estimate the impact of OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators on trade among CEFTA-2006 members: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Montenegro, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Serbia. These indicators cover a great spectrum of border procedures for more than 160 economies across different income levels, geographical regions, and levels of development. Each Trade Facilitation Indicator is composed of several specific, precise, and fact-based variables related to existing trade-related policies and regulations and their implementation in practice. The analysis will be based upon twelve Trade Facilitation Indicators, separately evaluated by the individual relevance of each of them for the regional trade exchange. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Harnessing Regional Trade Agreements as Catalysts for Climate-Smart Trade: The Case of Western Balkans Countries(Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans – UdEkoM Balkan, 2023-12-07); ; The concept of climate-smart trade is gaining momentum as trade agreements increasingly incorporate provisions to balance economic growth and environmental conservation. While in the past, environmental and climate issues played a minor role in international trade agreements, recently there has been a growing trend towards incorporating climate-smart provisions, particularly in regional trade agreements (RTAs). These provisions aim to promote sustainable development, pursue international environmental goals, ensure a level playing field, and enhance environmental cooperation. The paper analyzes the emergence of environmental and climate-related provisions in free trade agreements. It attempts to define them, explain how they are incorporated into free trade agreements, and assess the reasons for the increased number of such provisions. The paper then briefly analyses statistical data related to the types of environmental and climate-related provisions contained in FTAs, before going into details of the climate-smart provisions of the regional trade agreements in the Western Balkans. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2022-12-01); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, “Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Macedonian Trade in Goods and Services”(Faculty of Economics Pale, University of East Sarajevo, 2022); ; ; The global economy faced severe repercussions from the COVID-19 pandemic, encompassing disruptions of economic activity, trade and supply chains. This adverse shock was quickly spilled over into the Macedonian economy. This paper reviews the developments in Macedonian trade in goods and services since the COVID-19 outbreak early in 2020. Data for 2020 point to a contraction in trade openness, amid a drop in both exports and imports, which is due to several channels. Disruptions in GSC and restrictions imposed in the international and domestic economy affected the outturn of export-oriented facilities in the automotive industry, leading to the steepest decline of exports of goods in the second quarter of 2020. The simultaneous drop of imports was impacted by exports decline, depressed domestic demand, and a fall in energy prices. The gradual easing in global conditions and the lifting of restrictive measures prompted the re-establishment of GSC and rebound of exports, evident in the data for the first half of 2021. Effects of the pandemic were also visible in the services trade, particularly travel and telecommunications, computer and information services. After the decrease in 2020, data on services trade point to increase of its surplus in the first half of 2021. Albeit the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Macedonian trade were believed to be temporary, the pandemic worldwide has prolonged outturn. This, as well as new upward shifts of the prices of essential goods on international markets, transportation insufficiencies as the weakest link of the GSC and the rise of transportation costs, make economic authorities reconsider their initial claims and impose a need of proposing additional measures on amortization of new, unavoidable international and national shocks. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO INCLUDE SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE-SMART PROVISIONS IN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS OF THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES(Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Istocnom Sarajevu, Pale, 2024-05); ; The goal of this paper is to analyze the incorporation of sustainable and climate-smart provisions in the regional trade agreements signed by the Western Balkans countries. The inclusion of these provisions has been gaining momentum in the international trade agenda as after the Covid-19 Pandemic and the turmoil in the international economy it has become more and more important to take care of the sustainable and climate-smart component in the trade policy. The inclusion of these provisions in trade agreements is essential in achieving sustainable development, pursuing international environmental goals, and fostering environmental cooperation. Western Balkan countries have been active in signing regional trade agreements and for the purposes of this paper we have analyzed the one regional trade agreement CEFTA-2006 signed between the six Western Balkans partners, the bilateral trade agreements signed between the individual Western Balkans partners and the European Union and the bilateral trade agreements signed between these partners with other partners like: Turkey, EFTA, United Kingdom, Ukraine. The analysis has shown that there is an increase in the incorporation of sustainable and climate-related provisions into the trade agreements of Western Balkans countries. The inclusion of such provisions has been particularly evident in trade agreements concluded from 2000 to 2010, with a notable increase in environmental provisions in agreements concluded after 2010. To support the analysis, we applied the software package NVivo 14 used for qualitative analysis and provide results displayed through word clouds, word frequency and word trees. The word “climate” and the word “sustainability” are not among the 1000 most frequently appeared words in the regional trade agreements of the Western Balkans countries. The words “environment” and “environmentally” are mentioned 251 times weighing a total of 0.02% of the agreements. The Nvivo analysis has confirmed the fact that there is still space for improvement and increasing the sustainable and climate-smart provisions in the agreements. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, “Estimating the Impact of EU Membership on United Kingdom’s Export by Using Gravity Model”(2021); ; ; After a year from the formal UK withdrawal from the EU, there are still different opinions about the potential economic impact of BREXIT. This paper gives detailed overview of the trade profile of UK and explores the determinants of United Kingdom`s export. We apply gravity model, to estimate the aggregate benefits of EU membership or reversed, lost benefits from leaving the EU. We measure the influence of GDP, distance, population, the EU membership, and signed free trade agreement with the trading partners on UK’s export as dependent variable. The analysis includes data for 70 UK trading partners in period of 70 years (from 1950 to 2020). The results show that UK’s export is directly proportional to trade partner`s GDP and inversely proportional to distance. In order to estimate the average benefit due to EU membership, we estimated subsequent equations with different time periods. The coefficient decreases and becomes negative as we shorten the time periods, proving that the average trade advantage due to EU membership diminishes over time. According to economic theory of regional integration it is expected that the coefficient increases due to many rounds of enlargement, especially the biggest one in 2004 as well as due to the introduction of the Euro. On contrary, as we shorten the time periods in the analysis, we obtained increasing coefficient for the variable free trade agreements. This confirms that trade exchange within FTA has significantly higher effect on United Kingdom’s export in comparison with trade within EU. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: TOOL TO PROMOTE CLIMATE – SMART AND SUSTAINABLE TRADE(University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, 2024-12); ; Balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability is crucial in today’s global landscape. As climate change poses urgent challenges, economic development remains a priority, particularly in disadvantaged regions. This paper examines the rise of environmental and climate-related provisions in trade agreements, focusing on the Asia-Pacific and Western Balkans regions. Historically, trade agreements had minimal environmental focus, but recent trends show a surge in such provisions, reflecting a growing recognition of environmental challenges. The Asia-Pacific region, heavily impacted by climate change, increasingly incorporates environmental clauses in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), as seen in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Similarly, amid European Union integration, the Western Balkans embed environmental clauses in trade pacts like Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA-2006), influenced by EU accession aspirations. The paper examines the emergence of environmental and climate-smart provisions in free trade agreements, before focusing on regional trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Western Balkans. In addition, a qualitative analysis using NVivo 14 software is conducted, employing text search and word frequency analyses, to assess regional trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific and Western Balkan countries. The results show varying levels of commitment to environmental standards across the examined agreements, with the Asia-Pacific countries generally showing greater integration of climate considerations compared to the Western Balkans. Going forward, broader cooperation is essential for fostering sustainable trade practices globally.