Peovski, Filip

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Peovski, Filip

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Peovski, Filip

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Analytical Modelling of Graduated Economists’ Employment
(Springer International Publishing, 2022-11-12)
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PREDICTING NON-LIFE INSURANCE SEGMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA: A COMPARATIVE MULTI-MODELLING PERSPECTIVE
(EERIA Second Annual Conference, 2023-09)
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Insurance prediction emerges as one of the fundamentals in business sustainability and rising market competitiveness, as current decisions depend on future expectations. As the available data exponentially grows, insurers face the most important decision - either focus on significant data analytics or simply lose ground to competitors which do so. This paper aims at predicting future developments in non-life gross written premiums, claims, number of contracts and technical premiums as the pure quantity of the underwritten risk in the Macedonian insurance sector. Through a multi-model univariate approach, the paper aims at uncovering forecasting capabilities of different models, which in turn can be used by the insurers to form expectations more adequately.
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Analytical Modelling of Graduated Economists' Employment
(Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2022-11-12)
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Higher education institutions are fully engaged in producing adequate labour supply. Targeting the persistently high youth unemployment should be among the top governmental priorities in a mutual benefiting environment for the economy and the HEIs. Earlier studies and practical experience for the national labour market imposes indications for a possible labour market mismatch. As the main objective, this research targets the two labour market segments (employment and self-employment) in North Macedonia for graduated economists at the Faculty of Economics – Skopje at Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje. Through the utilisation of machine learning and cluster analysis techniques for graduated economists between 2017 and 2021, we found that age, academic suc-cess, family’s income, and having some type of informal education, significantly determine the employment status of graduated economists. Moreover, there is no clear-cut evidence that the gender and the bachelor programme are one of the main determinants, even though positive linkage for females, studying financial management and Accounting and auditing, and employment is observed. The empirical findings provide clear direction for policy creation regarding study pro-grammes and higher youth employment, both for the national government and the higher education institutions.
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Determinants of Motor Third Party Liability insurance in North Macedonia
(2022-09)
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This paper emphasizes the importance of the motor third party liability (MTPL) insurance in the Republic of North Macedonia as the dominant class in the Macedonian insurance sector. Even though underdeveloped, the Macedonian insurance market holds great potential, but obstacles such as low financial literacy, insurance culture among economic agents, and general problems in adequate risk valuation weaken serious growth. Additionally, it is confirmed in various cases that the economic development is a significant determinant of insurance market development (Ward and Zurbruegg, 2000; Skalská, 2018). The purpose of insurance is to protect risk averse individuals from suffering the full consequences of actions that affect them adversely (Spence and Zeckhauser, 1971), with insurance companies acting as risk underwriters. With the rising population, complex urban traffic and technological progress, a need for compulsory insurance of motor third-party liability emerged. Till date, a bonus-malus tariff system is employed in the case of the Macedonian insurance sector. Since the general concept is risk valuation and pooling, a meaningful approach is premium differentiation between insurers which reflects risk heterogeneity (Henckaerts et al., 2018). A liberalized formation of MTPL prices is announced in North Macedonia, but a significant challenge may be the inadequate and scarce data (Tomeski, 2012). As claims become more common, the insurance market steadily focuses on other classes such as property and voluntary health insurance but nothing significant enough to substantially change the business environment. Through the analysis of the determinants of MTPL insurance premium, we ought to find the underlying relationships between a set of variables which should help policy creators and insurance companies in formulating future business decisions. Using a simultaneous inductive and deductive techniques, we conduct the study entirely on quantitative basis. The research distances from the pure macroeconomic determinants previously treated in studies of non-life insurance demand (Poposki, Kjosevski and Stojanovski, 2015) and insurance expenditures (Trinh, Nguyen and Sgro, 2016). On contrary, we ought to depict the underlying microeconomic relationships which are idiosyncratic i.e., specific for each insurance company and the built-in consumer tendencies. Worth noting that consumer behavior can also be studied in a different manner such as through their transition between companies, as Blazheska and Ivanovski show (2021). By discussing a specific class of compulsory insurance – the MTPL, we empirically contextualize the most important class of insurance in a developing Western Balkan economy. The main research hypothesis is that MTPL gross written premium dynamics can be significantly determined by the number of contracts, gross claims liquidated, market share and share of MTPL insurance in total gross written premium (GWP).
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Wicked Problems’ Definitions and Characteristics: A Scoping Literature Review
(Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Zagreb, 2023-05-13)
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Stella Tsani
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Alexandros Tsioutsios
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Hynek Roubík
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Wicked problems are multifaceted issues that are difficult to resolve due to their complex, ever- changing, and incomplete nature. They have no single solution and often involve various dimensions, such as technology, social, economic, policy, and environmental factors. Addressing wicked problems necessitates an interdisciplinary and systems approach. However, there remains a need for an interdisciplinary review that delivers a comprehensive understanding of wicked problem definitions, characteristics, and applications. Considering that wicked problems involve various dimensions and require interdisciplinary collaboration, a scoping review is an appropriate method to rapidly map the key concepts and sources of evidence across different fields, providing a more holistic perspective on the topic. Scoping reviews can foster greater awareness and knowledge-sharing among researchers and practitioners from different disciplines by summarizing and disseminating research findings. Additionally, they are instrumental in identifying research gaps in the existing literature. Recognizing these gaps is crucial for guiding future research on wicked problems and ensuring that emerging studies build on and expand current knowledge in the field. To conduct a scoping review on wicked problems, a comprehensive selection process was utilized to identify relevant articles. The eligibility criteria included using selected keywords, a time frame from 2000 to the present, English-language articles, and peer-reviewed publications. Only scientific articles from the following databases were considered to ensure high quality: ScienceDirect, Web of Science, PubMed, and Scopus. For data management, the open-source program Zotero was employed to streamline the process of handling research materials. We identified 121 articles for the data pool to be analyzed. A standardized online form was used for identifying and collecting literature contributions and developments about a) definitions of wicked problems; b) characteristics of wicked problems; and c) factors that influence wicked problems (regulations, policies, institutions, etc.). Through our analysis, we have identified 100 definitions. Most of the research papers build their definitions on the work of Rittel and Weber (1973) or employ the definition that the latter have derived for wicked problems. With regard to the characteristics and factors, the scoping review highlights wicked problems as pervasive, unpredictable, and complex, involving political, economic, social, and environmental factors. Traditional approaches are inadequate, necessitating innovative, multi-dimensional, multi- stakeholder solutions. However, uncertainty and disagreement on addressing wicked problems persist, with no single solution. Furthermore, stakeholders view solutions’ applicability and efficacy differently, adding to the complexity. Purely scientific solutions are insufficient, as wicked problems are closely linked to societal issues, and solutions are subjective, based on stakeholders’ perceptions.
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Comparative analysis of forecasting models in the nonlife insurance: Insights from the SARIMA and ETS approaches
(Wiley, 2024-09-26)
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To ensure competitiveness and sustainability, insurance companies need accurate predictions. The paper analyzes nonlife insurance gross written premiums, technical premiums, claims, and the number of contracts through a multi‐model univariate approach comparing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) with Exponential Smoothing models. The hypothesis suggests that SARIMA's superior handling of complex seasonal patterns enhances predictive accuracy. Data from 2012M01 to 2023M06 provides a comprehensive sector‐wide view, essential for decision‐making. The results show that SARIMA models outperform exponential smoothing in almost all major accuracy metrics over the training period. Over the test period, the exponential smoothing models show more accurate performances. However, the optimal exponential smoothing models fail in mitigating autocorrelation and non‐normality in residuals, which is successfully tackled by the weighted ensemble models. In all cases except for the number of contracts concluded, the rolling one‐step ahead forecast approach generates superior accuracy over the classic training‐test split. This research confirms that using SARIMA, exponential smoothing, weighted ensemble, and rolling window models can significantly improve forecasting accuracy and are better solutions than the seasonal naive benchmark. It provides important insights into insurance forecasting and risk management, which are often overlooked in existing literature, and can greatly benefit corporate governance and policymaking.
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FINANCIAL SECTOR STOCKS REACTION TO COVID-19 EVENTS
(Faculty of Economics - Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2021-11-13)
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Ahmedi, Sulejman
Price fluctuations in the financial sector are often of major interest when projecting the general performance and state of the economy. The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in the sector are analyzed through the event study method. A random sample portfolio of 20 financial sector stocks listed on the NYSE is used and its reaction on 15 different events throughout 2020 is observed. Results indicate that events in the earlier stage of the pandemic exhibit both higher abnormal returns and significance, compared to the ones at the latter stages, with a larger proportion of them being bad news. The financial sector is perceived to react significantly in such cases, usually anticipating them beforehand. As adjustment windows are rarely significant, the market’s reaction is deemed as efficient. The general conclusion is that the financial sector stocks react to important COVID-19 news, generating abnormal rather than expected returns.
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Efficiency of Indian General Insurance Companies: Convex Nonparametric Least Squares Approach
(Croatian Operational Research Society, 2022-12-22)
Sinha, Ram Pratap
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<jats:p>In the current millennium, the Indian general insurance market has witnessed major structural changes because of the establishment of a market regulator and the initiation of entry deregulation. The present study evaluates the efficiency performance of fifteen Indian general insurance companies for the period 2011/12 - 2016/17 using a robust nonparametric approach. The study also seeks to explain efficiency by considering the influence of environmental variables on the efficiency scores. The results indicate that efficiency is positively related to ownership, insurer age, market share, and return on equity but negatively related to size.</jats:p>
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Municipal Revenue Determinants in the South-Eastern European Economy: Evidence from North Macedonia
(2022-04)
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Merdzan, Gjunter
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Sustainability of municipal finance implies steady revenue generation. Pinpointing their determinants creates the necessary background in their management and policy creation. Great municipal dependence on central government finance remains a serious challenge in the process of fiscal decentralisation. So far, studies have been focusing on the expenditure side, while revenues were treated mostly marginally. A random-effects Generalized Least Squares (GLS) panel regression for the period of 2015–2019 is estimated for targeting revenue determinants of municipalities in North Macedonia. Own and total tax revenues are modelled separately through the impact of capital expenditures, salary expenditures, active transparency index, municipality type, and local government’s ideology. The general results indicate that capital expenditure, municipal transparency, and the level of development are significant determinants of municipal revenues in both estimated models. Using such knowledge on municipal revenue reactions can help governments formulate policies that provide sustainable and effective fiscal decentralisation, lowering the pressure on central governments in developing economies.
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Assessing the European Central Bank’s Unconventional Measures – a Recursive VAR Approach
(Faculty of Economics, University of Zenica, 2021)
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Unconventional monetary measures utilization has proven to be of great importance in maintaining monetary and economic stability after the Great Recession. However, we aim to test this conclusion through the impact of the quantitative easing implemented by the European Central Bank. Observed through generated shocks in the balance sheet of the Eurosystem as our main variable, we tested whether quantitative easing reestablished economic growth and rose price levels, mainly through lowering borrowing costs for banks, thus helping in the post-crisis recovery. To prove our hypotheses we construct a recursive VAR model estimated in levels using 2014M05- 2018M12 data. The model incorporates variables such as the industrial production and the HICP, as output and price level proxies, and financial components such as the EONIA-MRO spread and the CISS index. The results show that the expansion shocks of the consolidated balance sheet have a positive temporary influence on industrial production and the HICP, but the reaction of the former seems to be 2.24 times greater. On the other hand, we find out that quantitative easing has an expected negative impact in widening the EONIA-MRO spread. Furthermore, we could not confirm the theoretically expected accommodative impact on financial stress.

Peovski, Filip

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