Spiridonov, Vlado
Preferred name
Spiridonov, Vlado
Official Name
Spiridonov, Vlado
Main Affiliation
Email
vspiridonov@meteo.gov.mk
13 results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 13
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Item type:Publication, Examination of in-cloud sulfate chemistry using a different model initialization(Springer Nature, 2018-12-13); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Development of air quality forecasting system in Macedonia, based on WRF-Chem model(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2019-05-02); ; - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The capability of NOTHAS in the prediction of extreme weather events across different climatic areas(Springer International Publishing, 2023-12); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Assessment of the WRF model in simulating a catastrophic flash flood(Springer International Publishing, 2023-06); ; Spasovski, MiloshThe present study examines the ability of the forecast (WRF) model to reproduce a heavy rainfall flash-flood event that hit the urban area of Skopje City, on August 6, 2016. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to evaluate the model’s performance in the simulation of this catastrophic event, which caused great material damage and the loss of 23 human lives. The simulations with the triple-nested WRF-ARW runs as well as the experiment using WRF-NMM dynamic core with the initial data of FNL GDAS showed better skills in a more precise qualitative and quantitative assessment of the total 24-h accumulated precipitation, the location and the relative intensities of rainfall. Explicit treatment of convection without parameterization significantly improves forecast accuracy and reduces forecast errors. The verification results, using standard tests, showed the model’s ability to reproduce the occurred flood. The correlation coefficient is higher for runs with explicit cumulus convection and 4 km resolution with the Yonsei PBL scheme and Thomson microphysics with aerosol climatology. In addition to the influence of the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere, orographic forcing on the development of a strong mesosystem is of great importance for the intensification of convective cells and the production of large amounts of precipitation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Cloud model simulation of heavy rainfall event using ensemble initialization(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 2023-07-11); ; Grcic, MarijaAn attempt has been made in the present research to simulate a heavy rainfall flash-flood event over Skopje, Macedonia on 6 August 2016. A cloud-resolving model CRM has been used to simulate a super-cell storm’s initiation and evolution. Initialization has been performed with an ensemble approach, avoiding the artificial initiation of convection. The initial conditions are taken from the upper air sounding data, derived from a triple nested WRF model forecast. The cloud model is then configured over a small domain and run with a very fine horizontal grid resolution of 250-m, with an open lateral boundary conditions LBC. This preliminary study showed that the ensemble approach has some potential advantages in the generation of the initial data and the model initialization. The applied method minimizes the uncertainties to some level and provides a more qualitative-quantitative assessment of supercell storm initiation, cell structure, evolutionary properties, and intensity. A high-resolution 3-D run is capable to resolve detailed aspects of convection, including high-intensity convective precipitation. The results are also significant from the aspect of a better understanding of storm vortex dynamics and microphysical processes, responsible for heavy rainfall production. After a series of experiments and verification, such a system could be a reliable tool in weather forecast offices for very short-range forecasting (nowcasting) and early warning of weather extremes. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Improvement of chemical initialization in the air quality forecast system in North Macedonia, based on WRF-Chem model(Springer Netherlands, 2020-09-16); ; Urban air quality is determined by a complex interaction of factors associated with anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric circulation, and geographic factors. Most of the urban-present pollution aerosols and trace gases are toxic to human health and responsible for damage of flora, fauna, and materials. The air quality prediction system based on state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) has been configured and designed for North Macedonia. An extensive set of experiments have been performed with different model settings to forecast simultaneously the weather and air quality over the country. The initial results and the finding from other similar studies suggest that chemical initialization plays a significant role in a more accurate, both qualitative and quantitative forecast and assessment of urban air pollution. The main objective of the present research is to develop and test for a novel chemical initialization input in the air quality forecast system in North Macedonia. It is performed using ensemble technique in respect to treatment of the mobile emissions data using scaling factors. The WRF-Chem prediction has shown a high sensitivity to different scaling methods. While scaling of the overall mobile annual emissions tends to produce some discrepancies regarding the PM10 concentration level (overestimation during summer and underestimation during winter), an improved approach that utilizes scaling, in a wider range, only the mobile emissions originated from household heating offers the possibility of more detailed parameter fitting. The verification results indicate that the best accuracy across all scores for the winter months was achieved when scaling up the baseline pollutant input using a higher factor, while in the other seasons, the best results were achieved when scaling down the baseline pollutant emissions by a significant factor. Taking all into account, we can conclude that the seasonal variation in the pollutant input to the atmosphere is a significant factor in simulating the pollution in this region. Therefore, these seasonal variations must be taken into account when fitting the pollutant emission input to any model. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Advanced Method for Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather and Local-scale Hazards(2022-02-17); ; Ćurić, MHurricane Ida ferociously affected many south-eastern and eastern parts of the United States, making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years. Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the ex-Hurricane, Ida, as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast, accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York City on September 01, 2021. This advanced method accurately detected the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h lead time and even Level 5, devised in the categorical outlooks legend of the system. Therefore, an extreme level implied a very high probability of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC. Cloud model output fields (updrafts and downdrafts, wind shear, near-surface convergence, the vertical component of relative vorticity) show the rapid development of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone. The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable (HP) supercell with the possibility of tornado initiation. Open boundary conditions represent a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm, initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred. Тhe modeled results agree well with the observations. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Temperature Dependent Initial Chemical Conditions for WRF-Chem Air Pollution Simulation Model(Springer, Cham, 2020-09-24); ; Air pollution is a health hazard that has been brought to public attention in the recent years, due to the widespread networks of air quality measurement stations. The importance of the problem brought the need to develop accurate air prediction models. The coupled meteo-chemical simulation systems have already been demonstrated to correctly predict the episodes of high pollution events. Due to the complexity of these models, which simulate the emissions, interactions and transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, setting up the correct parameters tailored for a specific area is a challenging task. In this paper we present an exhaustive analysis of the historical air pollution measurements, a detailed evaluation of an existing WRF-Chem based predictive model and propose an approach for improvement of that specific model. We use a specific temperature-dependent way of scaling the initial chemical conditions of a WRF-chem simulation, which leads to significant reduction of the bias by the model. We present the analysis that led us into these conclusions, the setup of the model, and the improvements made by using this approach. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Ensemble cloud model application in simulating the catastrophic heavy rainfall event(2022-11-30); - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Assessment of the WRF model in reproducing a flash-flood heavy rainfall event over Kosovo(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-03-12); This research investigates the efficacy of the cloud-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing convective cells associated with flash-flooding heavy rainfall near Peja, Northeast Kosovo, on June 24, 2023. Employing two distinct dynamical cores and a unique numerical setup for the Kosovo domain, numerical experiments were conducted. The study employed a triply nested WRF-ARW model with a high resolution of 3 km horizontal grid spacing, integrating conventional analysis data. Additionally, experiments using the WRF-NMM core with 3 km for a larger domain covering Southeast Europe and Kosovo domain were executed to simulate the specific event. The WRF model accurately simulated the initiation of isolated thunderstorms, convective band formation, cloud cluster, and squall line at the opportune time. While precipitation distribution was reasonably replicated, there was a slight underestimation in the amount. Hydrological analysis of precipitation, including river discharge rates provided from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, identified a unique storm category with intense precipitation production, registering an intensity of approximately 54.6 mm in one hour, leading to sudden flash flooding.