Stakeholder perceptions of migration policies and investment in human capital development: expert interview evidence from policymakers, labor market organizations and social partners in North Macedonia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Ethiopia

Abstract

Introduction: Policies that combine human capital development and migration governance are necessary because migration alters the labor supply and skill distribution across economies. Through a cross-country approach, four migrant-origin countries, North Macedonia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Ethiopia, that reflect various combinations of demographic pressures, institutional capacity, and conflict shocks are examined in this study. Methods: Using standardized qualitative expert interviews with policymakers, labor market intermediaries, and social partners, analyzed through a reflexive thematic analysis, the study explores the respondents’ perceptions and the channels through which education and migration policies, as perceived, interact to influence labor market outcomes. Results: Respondents reported that migration dynamics exacerbate structural unemployment, gender disparities, brain drain, and ongoing skill mismatches in all four countries. Interviewees highlight structural gaps in technical training and job-readiness in Ethiopia, while in Ukraine, a prime example of the disruptive effects of war, population displacement strains both education and the labor market. In North Macedonia and Türkiye, skill mismatches are pronounced by the notable emigration as well as the inefficiency of retention mechanisms. Among all studied countries, participants identified demand-based training and reliable institutional frameworks as crucial levers for reducing shortages and slowing the human capital depletion. Discussion: The comparative study emphasizes the need for policies that efficiently connect labor market demands, migration management, and education to achieve a balance between social demands and long-term socioeconomic growth.