Toward a Sustainable Energy Future: Scenario-Based Analysis for North Macedonia

Abstract

In this paper, three alternative scenarios are examined and presented for the possibilities of North Macedonia’s transitioning energy sector toward renewable energy sources. Various combinations of photovoltaics, wind turbines, cogeneration plants, and hydropower plants are taken into consideration for analysing the technical, and environmental aspects. The results represent a comparison of CO₂ emissions, stability of the power grid, and energy imports and exports. According to the represented results, the scenarios with a dominant share of photovoltaics significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, while scenarios with increased involvement of wind turbines have a significant impact on export potential. Hydropower is a crucial factor for energy flexibility and stability. Also, cogeneration plants have an important role in grid balancing and import dependency reduction. The results indicate that the proper investments distribution is essential for a sustainable energy transition. Čebren, as a future planned project provide a baseline for better optimization of the energy system.