Uncertainty Evaluation in Resource Assessment of Wind Energy Potential

Abstract

The decision for exploitation wind for electrical energy production is based on assignment of its long-term mean speed and distribution parameters. This data is usually obtained from a measurement campaign with a short duration. Taking into account the real characteristics of the instrumentation, such as it is: accuracy, finite resolution, dynamic response, it is obvious that the measurements will provide information with appended uncertainty. Next, the wind speed obtained from a measurement campaign is supposed to be extrapolated in long-term period. The extrapolation possess its own uncertainty component as well. Additionally, uncertainty is present because of terrain's characteristics of the observed site. The overall uncertainty prescribed to a long-term wind speed can be easily transferred to the Weibull distribution scale and shape parameters, These uncertainties, on the other hand, lead to uncertainty existence in the calculated mean annual energy production. Several other factors affect the estimated energy production, such as turbine efficiency, and the characteristics provided by the manufacturer, especially the power curve.