PREDICTING NON-LIFE INSURANCE SEGMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA: A COMPARATIVE MULTI-MODELLING PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Insurance prediction emerges as one of the fundamentals in business sustainability and rising market competitiveness, as current decisions depend on future expectations. As the available data exponentially grows, insurers face the most important decision - either focus on significant data analytics or simply lose ground to competitors which do so. This paper aims at predicting future developments in non-life gross written premiums, claims, number of contracts and technical premiums as the pure quantity of the underwritten risk in the Macedonian insurance sector. Through a multi-model univariate approach, the paper aims at uncovering forecasting capabilities of different models, which in turn can be used by the insurers to form expectations more adequately.