Forecast improvement in Lorenz 96 system
Journal
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Date Issued
2012-10
Author(s)
Kocarev, Ljupcho
Abstract
Contemporary numerical weather prediction
schemes are based on ensemble forecasting. Ensemble members are obtained by taking different (perturbed) models
started with different initial conditions. We introduce one
type of improved model that represents interactive ensemble
of individual models. The improved model’s performance is
tested with the Lorenz 96 toy model. One complex model is
considered as reality, while its imperfect models are taken
to be structurally simpler and with lower resolution. The
improved model is defined as one with tendency that is
weighted average of the tendencies of individual models. The
weights are calculated from past observations by minimizing
the average difference between the improved model’s tendency and that of the reality. It is numerically verified that
the improved model has better ability for short-term prediction than any of the individual models.
schemes are based on ensemble forecasting. Ensemble members are obtained by taking different (perturbed) models
started with different initial conditions. We introduce one
type of improved model that represents interactive ensemble
of individual models. The improved model’s performance is
tested with the Lorenz 96 toy model. One complex model is
considered as reality, while its imperfect models are taken
to be structurally simpler and with lower resolution. The
improved model is defined as one with tendency that is
weighted average of the tendencies of individual models. The
weights are calculated from past observations by minimizing
the average difference between the improved model’s tendency and that of the reality. It is numerically verified that
the improved model has better ability for short-term prediction than any of the individual models.
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