Карактеристики на тековните трансфери и одржливост на платно-билансната рамнотежа, со посебен осврт на Република Македонија

Abstract

A large number of countries face current account deficits, which impose questions of the main determinants behind them and the best sources for financing and maintaining them. The Republic of Macedonia is in a similar situation with current account deficit in some years reaching above the accepted threshold of 5% of GDP. The main reason behind this is, as with the case with many other countries in development, the trade deficit, which in 2008 reached 28,7% of the GDP. On the other side the current transfers, which over the years have recorded continuous and stable increase, represent the main source of external financing. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the main determinants of the current account, sources of financing and the role that the remittances have in financing one part of the net foreign outflows. Statistical data of the current account deficit of the Republic of Macedonia show a trend of stabilization below the level of 5% of GDP, especially after 2010, which is a good sign. However, the results show that a large part of the foreign assets are provided through private transfers inflows, while the difference is obtained from external financing by issuing debt instruments. This is a risky and expensive source of financing, and in the same time, highly sensitive to internal and external shocks. Therefore, the need to implement structural reforms in the Macedonian economy is essential. It will lead to improved diversification of the export sector and better competitiveness of the goods and services produced in the country, which will lead to decrease in the current account deficit. On the other side, the increase of the official reserve assets, the deposit institutions foreign assets and the foreign assets held by the households’ shows that one part of the external financing is not used for financing the balance of payments deficits, but to finance other types of expenditures. Therefore, it is necessarily to direct these assets into productive goals, investment projects that will help creating future economic growth, as well as creating opportunities in which the deposit institutions and the households can invest their savings.