Оценување на фискалната одржливост на Република Македонија – стохастички пристап

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability is a multidimensional concept. It includes the fiscal solvency, the stable and robust economic growth, the stable taxation system, the capacity of the economy to absorb negative and unforeseen macroeconomic shocks, successful contingent liabilities management and inter-generations equality. In this paper the characteristics and the meaning of the most common types of fiscal sustainability analyses will be presented, as well as a short literature review of the theoretical framework for fiscal sustainability assessment. Further, some stylized facts on the Macedonian economy which are important for approaching to analysis and assessment of the fiscal sustainability will be reviewed. For assessing the fiscal sustainability of the Republic of Macedonia the stochastic VaR model will be used and the calculations will be made according to the tree methods: variancecovariance, historical simulations and Monte Carlo simulations. At the end, the key question is the existence and the size of a fiscal space for further expansion of budget deficit and increasing the public debt level, under an acceptable level of risk exposure. If the answer is negative, in which size, type and time horizon, a fiscal consolidation is necessary.