Примена на сценарио планирање во турбулентно окружување

Abstract

Contemporary environment is characterized by rapid change, innovation and uncertainty. This turbulent environment delivered through a global complexity and dynamic change requires organizations to develop the ability to investigate the factors that encourage change and capacity for anticipating the possible solutions to potential problems. Throughout history, in the practice continuously are applied the methods of forecasting, and later the strategic planning, as ways to establish a vital link between the organization's future and the environment. But the methods of forecasting project the past events and historical data in order to develop plans for the future. Furthermore, strategic planning shows the inside of organizations and how they anticipate and cope with change, but does not possess the ability to incorporate massive and unexpected political, environmental, economic and social change in organizational plans. With the emergence of scenario planning organizations develop plans for significant changes in the environment for which the data are limited. Through the telling of a number of alternative stories about the future, organizations include structurally different and unexpected future events, factors and actors in their plans and prepare responds to them. The literature abounds with different definitions, characteristics, principles and methodologies for scenario planning and application of scenarios in different areas in the private and public sectors. This paper attempts to approximate scenario planning to business sector, by its definition, monitoring its origin and growth, its connection with forecasting and strategic planning and categorizing according to different methodologies of application. The aim of the doctoral dissertation is confirmation of the importance of scenario planning in the process of thinking and formulating strategies for action in the future "unthinkable" external and internal conditions of the environment. Thus, organizational leaders will have the essential information for proactive action on the turbulent market and exercise top performance.