Моделирање на динамичките ефекти од промените на јавната потрошувачка и даноците врз економската активност

Abstract

The aim of the doctoral thesis is to estimate the impact of fiscalpolicy, primarily through public spending over the economic activity of the country.The topicise specially presentin both the domestic and the international public, not only in the academia, but also between the holders of economic policies. Keynesian and neoclassical economic school have different views on the impact of public spending over the economic activity. The dissertation is a detailed overview of the huge number of relevant scientific researches that empirically document these effects.The special attentionis paid tomodeling using vector autoregressive models. In this doctoral thesis by means of vector autoregressive model determines the impact of public spending over economic activity in the country.The reason for the use of this model is set for GDP (gross domestic product) and public spending are unsteady. The function of theimpulse-response suggests that economic activity has a positive response to the shock of public spending in a period of four quarters, and after six quarters the response of economic activity becomes negative which is in accordance withKeynesian models and neoclassical models of business cycles. After 6 quarters the response of GDP (gross domestic product) becomes negative, and the reason for this may be the period of recession which occurs in the second half ofthe period of observation,as well as the quality of public expenditure. The analysis is done in EViews and JMulTi programs.