Вреднување на хартиите од вредност со примена на техниките засновани на дисконтирање на готовинските текови

Abstract

Valuation plays a key role in many areas of finance - in corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions and portfolio management. The value of an asset comes from its capacity to generate cash flows. The value of the firm/asset is the present value of expected future cash flows generated by the firm/asset. When valuing assets and firms, we need to use discount rates that reflect the riskiness of the cash flows. The cost of debt has to incorporate a default spread for the default risk in the debt and the cost of equity has to include a risk premium for equity risk. It is crucial for analysts to measure default and equity risk, and more importantly to come up with default and equity risk premiums. The risk premium is a fundamental and critical component and measures what investor demand as a premium for investment in risky investment. However, the most critical input in valuation is the growth rate to use to forecast future revenues and earnings. The best way of estimating growth is to base it on a firm’s fundamentals. The simplest model for valuing equity is the dividend discount model. Many analysts viewed it as outmoded, but much of the intuition that drives discounted cash flow valuation is embedded in the dividend discount model. There are also specific companies where the dividend discount model remains a useful tool for estimating value. The free cash flow model does not represent a radical departure from traditional dividend discount model. The versions of FCF valuation model are simple variant on the dividend discount model. Beside above mentioned, this study presents fundamental principles of relative valuation. In discounted cash flow valuation, the objective is to find the value of assets, given their cash flow, growth and risk characteristics. In relative valuation, the objective is to value assets, based upon how similar assets are currently priced in the market through use of multiplies. The analysts faced with the task of valuing a firm/asset or its equity has to choose among different approaches – discounted cashflow valuation or relative valuation and within each approach, they must also among different models. These choices will be driven largely by the characteristics of the form/asset being valued – the level of its earnings, its growth potential, the sources of earning growth, the stability of its leverage and its dividend policy. The basic task of these research is to present all relevant factors and models for quality evaluation of investments in long-term securities and identification of determinants of the securities /firm value with practical valuation of securities on Macedonian Stock Exchange. Practical analyses and valuation made on trading securities at MSE has helped us to identify problems in use of valuation models, causes for differences between valuation and market prices and to determine basic parameters for implementation of valuation on Macedonian financial market. In context of above mentioned aspects, this study can be viewed as a solid contribution for practical implementation of valuation models in real sector and financial market of the Republic of Macedonia.