Есеи за таргетирање на инфлацијата: eмпириска анализа на макроекономските ефекти во новопојавените пазарни економии

Abstract

Inflation targeting as a monetary strategy is currently being implemented in a number of developed and developing countries and as such draws immense interest in the empirical literature with respect to the achieved benefits with respect to the other monetary regimes. In this study the author empirically tests three postulates present in the literature on inflation targeting for a sample of emerging market economies for the period 1970–2017: the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting; macroeconomic, financial and institutional factors that influence the implementation of inflation targeting as an official strategy for monetary policy; as well as the effects of inflation targeting related to the real costs of disinflation, measured by the sacrifice ratio. In evaluating each of the aforementioned research questions, a variety of models and estimating techniques have been used: in the first paper we estimate a dynamic panel data model using system GMM that instruments the endogeneity of the discretionary right of the monetary authority to select the monetary strategy; in the second paper we estimate panel binary response models using panel logit as an estimator; while in the third paper we work with cross section data and use OLS as the main estimator. The main conclusion of this study is that inflation targeting has moderate positive effects on the macroeconomic performance, although its benefit with respect to the other monetary strategies is relatively minor, while its successful implementation is not particularly related to the fulfillment of any preconditions. More specifically: inflation targeting has positive effect on lowering the average rate of inflation, although moderate with respect to the other monetary strategies; we cannot find enough evidence to support the claim the inflation targeting lowers the volatility of the inflation rate, nor the volatility of the growth of real output, while inflation targeting cannot be associated with positive effects on the growth rate of real output; in choosing inflation targeting as the main monetary strategy, central banks pay the most attention on the movement of inflation and output volatility; while implementing inflation targeting results in higher real costs of disinflation in this group of countries. In each of the analysis, the main results are augmented with further robustness analyses which prove the stability of the main results.