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Title: Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model
Authors: Basnarkov, Lasko 
Igor Tomovski
Trifce Sandev
Kocarev, LJupcho 
Keywords: Epidemic sreading
Non-Markovian models
SIR model
Issue Date: 15-Jul-2021
Publisher: Arxiv repository
Abstract: We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the recovery period are modeled with general functions. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, in the spring, 2020.
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering: Journal Articles

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