Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/12707
Title: Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
Authors: Blöschl, Günter
Hall, Julia
Viglione, Alberto
Perdigão, Rui A P
Parajka, Juraj
Merz, Bruno
Lun, David
Arheimer, Berit
Aronica, Giuseppe T
Bilibashi, Ardian
Boháč, Miloň
Bonacci, Ognjen
Borga, Marco
Čanjevac, Ivan
Castellarin, Attilio
Chirico, Giovanni B
Claps, Pierluigi
Frolova, Natalia
Ganora, Daniele
Gorbachova, Liudmyla
Gül, Ali
Hannaford, Jamie
Harrigan, Shaun
Kireeva, Maria
Kiss, Andrea
Kjeldsen, Thomas R
Kohnová, Silvia
Koskela, Jarkko J
Ledvinka, Ondrej
Macdonald, Neil
Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
Mediero, Luis
Merz, Ralf
Molnar, Peter
Montanari, Alberto
Murphy, Conor
Osuch, Marzena
Ovcharuk, Valeryia
Radevski, Ivan 
Salinas, José L
Sauquet, Eric
Šraj, Mojca
Szolgay, Jan
Volpi, Elena
Wilson, Donna
Zaimi, Klodian
Živković, Nenad
Issue Date: Sep-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Journal: Nature
Abstract: Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/12707
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics: Journal Articles

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