METHODOLOGY FOR TUNNEL RISK ASSESSMENT USING FAULT AND EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
Date Issued
2021-05
Author(s)
Zafirovski Zlatko
Gacevski Vasko
Krakutovski Zoran
Ognjenovic Slobodan
Nedevska Ivona
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5592/CO/CETRA.2020
Abstract
The intense demand and construction of tunnels is accompanied by uncertainties. The reason
for appearance of uncertainties are the complex solutions and conditions for these
structures. Location and dimensions are becoming more challenging, and the construction
is predicted in complexed geological conditions, leading to application of new approaches,
methodologies and technologies by the engineers. Most of the uncertainties and unwanted
events in tunnelling occur in the construction phase, which generally leads to economic
consequences and time losses. For easier handling of the uncertainties, they should be anticipated
and studied within a separate part of each project. One of the newer approaches
to dealing with uncertainties is hazard and risk assessment and defining ways to deal with
them i.e. management. Hazards and risks can be analysed qualitatively and quantitatively.
The quantitative analysis, examines the causes and consequences in more detail way and
gives explanation of the dependencies. With the quantitative approach, a more valuable information
for decision-making can be provided. There are various models and methods used
for the quantification of hazards and risks. This paper presents a methodology in which the
fault tree analysis and event tree analysis are used in combination to obtain quantitative results.
The fault tree analysis is used for assessment of various hazards and the different ways
and reasons that cause them. The event tree analysis is a method for assessing the possible
scenarios, which follow after a certain hazard i.e. the consequences that may occur in the
project. These trees represent graphic models combined with a mathematical (probabilistic)
model, which give the probability of occurrence of the risks.
for appearance of uncertainties are the complex solutions and conditions for these
structures. Location and dimensions are becoming more challenging, and the construction
is predicted in complexed geological conditions, leading to application of new approaches,
methodologies and technologies by the engineers. Most of the uncertainties and unwanted
events in tunnelling occur in the construction phase, which generally leads to economic
consequences and time losses. For easier handling of the uncertainties, they should be anticipated
and studied within a separate part of each project. One of the newer approaches
to dealing with uncertainties is hazard and risk assessment and defining ways to deal with
them i.e. management. Hazards and risks can be analysed qualitatively and quantitatively.
The quantitative analysis, examines the causes and consequences in more detail way and
gives explanation of the dependencies. With the quantitative approach, a more valuable information
for decision-making can be provided. There are various models and methods used
for the quantification of hazards and risks. This paper presents a methodology in which the
fault tree analysis and event tree analysis are used in combination to obtain quantitative results.
The fault tree analysis is used for assessment of various hazards and the different ways
and reasons that cause them. The event tree analysis is a method for assessing the possible
scenarios, which follow after a certain hazard i.e. the consequences that may occur in the
project. These trees represent graphic models combined with a mathematical (probabilistic)
model, which give the probability of occurrence of the risks.
Subjects
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