Data Driven Analysis of Trade, FDI And International Relations On Global Scale
Date Issued
2017-06
Author(s)
Vodenska, Irena
Cvetanov, Goce
Chitkushev, Ljubomir
Abstract
International politics and economics are not independent. Often, countries face
economic sanctions or deteriorated economic prospects because of adverse
political developments. Foreign trade (exports and imports of goods), capital
flow in form of foreign direct investments (FDI) or cross-border capital
investments have frequently been studied to understand political relationships
between countries. On one hand, we have quantitative macroeconomic
indicators, and on the other we face qualitative multilevel political relations and
events. To better understand the intertwined nature of economics and politics,
we use the digitized massive archival news data, the Global Database of
Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to model and systematically quantify
global political processes. We then apply statistical and machine learning
methods to analyze these political events correlations with global economies
and societies. We categorize countries in four groups, based on the World
Bank’s income classification, and find that international relations have strong
correlation with economic parameters, highly dependent on countries’ income
levels.
economic sanctions or deteriorated economic prospects because of adverse
political developments. Foreign trade (exports and imports of goods), capital
flow in form of foreign direct investments (FDI) or cross-border capital
investments have frequently been studied to understand political relationships
between countries. On one hand, we have quantitative macroeconomic
indicators, and on the other we face qualitative multilevel political relations and
events. To better understand the intertwined nature of economics and politics,
we use the digitized massive archival news data, the Global Database of
Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to model and systematically quantify
global political processes. We then apply statistical and machine learning
methods to analyze these political events correlations with global economies
and societies. We categorize countries in four groups, based on the World
Bank’s income classification, and find that international relations have strong
correlation with economic parameters, highly dependent on countries’ income
levels.
Subjects
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