Assessment of the impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency policies on the Macedonian energy sector development
Journal
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Date Issued
2013-07-11
Author(s)
Dedinec Kanevche, Aleksandra
Taseska-Gjorgievska, V
Markovska, Natasa
Kanevce, G
Goldstein, G
Pye, S
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to examine and quantify how the development of
the energy system in Macedonia could be influenced by policies and programs
that promote energy efficiency and renewable energy, in terms of energy
security and diversification, economic competitiveness, and CO2 mitigation. For
this purpose, the MARKAL-Macedonia national energy planning model was
used. These policies are explored by comparing a reference (business-as-usual)
development of energy system with three alternative policy scenarios: (1)
Renewable Energy (RE) Scenario—introducing a renewable energy target by
2020 in line with that proposed by the Energy Community; (2) Energy
Efficiency (EE) Scenario—exploring the range of energy efficiency measures
that are the most cost-effective means to meet national targets aimed at
reducing final energy consumption; and (3) Combined RE and EE Scenario—a
combination of supply-side and demand-side approaches that examine the
resulting synergies of these policy goals. For each scenario, the implications of
least-cost investment options for new capacity builds, investment spending
requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions
were assessed. The analyses have shown that even under the Reference
scenario, the reliance on electricity import will be reduced, as a result of
increased gas import. The RE scenario further reduces the overall import by 3%
while the EE scenario by 12%. Total discounted costs of the energy system in
the Reference scenario is estimated to nearly e36 billion, with investment of
e3.773 billion for 2.803 GW of new electricity generation capacity needed to
meet the increased demand by 2030. The proposed RE target increases the cost
of the energy system only by 0.13%, due to the availability of additional
renewables, particularly hydro, biomass, and biofuels. The combination of the
policies that promote increased energy efficiency will decrease the discounted
energy system costs of 0.24% (e87 million net present value). The baseline
evolution of the energy system results in 59% increase of CO2 emissions over
the planning horizon. The analyzed RE and EE policies show strong synergies
with a move to a lower carbon economy, resulting in cumulative CO2 emissions
reduction of 3.7% triggered by an overall drop in consumption and less use of
fossil fuels. VC 2013 AIP Publishing LLC. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4813401]
the energy system in Macedonia could be influenced by policies and programs
that promote energy efficiency and renewable energy, in terms of energy
security and diversification, economic competitiveness, and CO2 mitigation. For
this purpose, the MARKAL-Macedonia national energy planning model was
used. These policies are explored by comparing a reference (business-as-usual)
development of energy system with three alternative policy scenarios: (1)
Renewable Energy (RE) Scenario—introducing a renewable energy target by
2020 in line with that proposed by the Energy Community; (2) Energy
Efficiency (EE) Scenario—exploring the range of energy efficiency measures
that are the most cost-effective means to meet national targets aimed at
reducing final energy consumption; and (3) Combined RE and EE Scenario—a
combination of supply-side and demand-side approaches that examine the
resulting synergies of these policy goals. For each scenario, the implications of
least-cost investment options for new capacity builds, investment spending
requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions
were assessed. The analyses have shown that even under the Reference
scenario, the reliance on electricity import will be reduced, as a result of
increased gas import. The RE scenario further reduces the overall import by 3%
while the EE scenario by 12%. Total discounted costs of the energy system in
the Reference scenario is estimated to nearly e36 billion, with investment of
e3.773 billion for 2.803 GW of new electricity generation capacity needed to
meet the increased demand by 2030. The proposed RE target increases the cost
of the energy system only by 0.13%, due to the availability of additional
renewables, particularly hydro, biomass, and biofuels. The combination of the
policies that promote increased energy efficiency will decrease the discounted
energy system costs of 0.24% (e87 million net present value). The baseline
evolution of the energy system results in 59% increase of CO2 emissions over
the planning horizon. The analyzed RE and EE policies show strong synergies
with a move to a lower carbon economy, resulting in cumulative CO2 emissions
reduction of 3.7% triggered by an overall drop in consumption and less use of
fossil fuels. VC 2013 AIP Publishing LLC. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4813401]
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