ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHORT DURATION IN MACEDONIA
Date Issued
2022-09-14
Author(s)
VIOLETA GJESHOVSKA
GOCE TASESKI
BOJAN ILIOSKI
Abstract
The change in precipitation has a direct impact on people’s lives at different levels. For example, an increase rainfall
can cause floods and / or landslides that affect individual homes, cities, and even entire countries. Floods cannot be
prevented or accurately predicted, but effective mitigation measures based on their occurrence estimates can significantly
reduce their impact. All models for estimating floods are based on precipitation analysis, with special emphasis
on short-term precipitation, which is often the cause of catastrophically large floods. Knowing the changes in rainfall
over a long period of time guarantees a better prognosis of floods and timely taking appropriate measures to mitigate or
to some extent prevent them. Hence, access to up-to-date / new and accurate short-term precipitation data is essential.
However, such key data are often unavailable in different parts of the world due to the lack of sufficient measuring
stations, but also in the case of raw data. In R.N. Macedonia in practice is still used data on heavy rainfall for the period
from 1956 to 1988. The need to update this information with more recent data is more than necessary, given that rainfall
is an extremely stochastic phenomenon.
The subject of this paper is updating the precipitation data in Macedonia for the period from 1956 to 2020. The changes
of precipitation in the last 30 years in eight measuring stations have been analysed. Existing series for annual maximum
precipitation with short duration for the period from 1956-1988, are supplemented with data for precipitation from
1989 to 2020. The procedure of processing pluviographic tapes in order to define the annual maximum precipitation
of a certain duration have been done by the method of characteristic (transitional) points or the method of five-minute
period of discretization (Dt = 5min). The obtained series are statistically analysed, a homogeneity test is performed
and the i-D-p (intensity-duration-probability of occurrence) curves are defined. The results are presented in tabular and
graphical form.
can cause floods and / or landslides that affect individual homes, cities, and even entire countries. Floods cannot be
prevented or accurately predicted, but effective mitigation measures based on their occurrence estimates can significantly
reduce their impact. All models for estimating floods are based on precipitation analysis, with special emphasis
on short-term precipitation, which is often the cause of catastrophically large floods. Knowing the changes in rainfall
over a long period of time guarantees a better prognosis of floods and timely taking appropriate measures to mitigate or
to some extent prevent them. Hence, access to up-to-date / new and accurate short-term precipitation data is essential.
However, such key data are often unavailable in different parts of the world due to the lack of sufficient measuring
stations, but also in the case of raw data. In R.N. Macedonia in practice is still used data on heavy rainfall for the period
from 1956 to 1988. The need to update this information with more recent data is more than necessary, given that rainfall
is an extremely stochastic phenomenon.
The subject of this paper is updating the precipitation data in Macedonia for the period from 1956 to 2020. The changes
of precipitation in the last 30 years in eight measuring stations have been analysed. Existing series for annual maximum
precipitation with short duration for the period from 1956-1988, are supplemented with data for precipitation from
1989 to 2020. The procedure of processing pluviographic tapes in order to define the annual maximum precipitation
of a certain duration have been done by the method of characteristic (transitional) points or the method of five-minute
period of discretization (Dt = 5min). The obtained series are statistically analysed, a homogeneity test is performed
and the i-D-p (intensity-duration-probability of occurrence) curves are defined. The results are presented in tabular and
graphical form.
Subjects
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