Ivanovski, Igor

Preferred name

Ivanovski, Igor

Official Name

Ivanovski, Igor

Main Affiliation

ivanovski@eccf.ukim.edu.mk

Now showing 1 - 10 of 23

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Analytical Modelling of Graduated Economists’ Employment
(Springer International Publishing, 2022-11-12)
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PREDICTING NON-LIFE INSURANCE SEGMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA: A COMPARATIVE MULTI-MODELLING PERSPECTIVE
(EERIA Second Annual Conference, 2023-09)
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Insurance prediction emerges as one of the fundamentals in business sustainability and rising market competitiveness, as current decisions depend on future expectations. As the available data exponentially grows, insurers face the most important decision - either focus on significant data analytics or simply lose ground to competitors which do so. This paper aims at predicting future developments in non-life gross written premiums, claims, number of contracts and technical premiums as the pure quantity of the underwritten risk in the Macedonian insurance sector. Through a multi-model univariate approach, the paper aims at uncovering forecasting capabilities of different models, which in turn can be used by the insurers to form expectations more adequately.
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APPLICATION OF 3D POINT CLOUD DATA FOR CUT SLOPE MONITORING
(Goce Delchev University - Shtip, 2024)
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Nedelkovska, Nataša
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Peševski, Igor
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Petrov, Goše
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Analytical Modelling of Graduated Economists' Employment
(Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2022-11-12)
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Higher education institutions are fully engaged in producing adequate labour supply. Targeting the persistently high youth unemployment should be among the top governmental priorities in a mutual benefiting environment for the economy and the HEIs. Earlier studies and practical experience for the national labour market imposes indications for a possible labour market mismatch. As the main objective, this research targets the two labour market segments (employment and self-employment) in North Macedonia for graduated economists at the Faculty of Economics – Skopje at Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje. Through the utilisation of machine learning and cluster analysis techniques for graduated economists between 2017 and 2021, we found that age, academic suc-cess, family’s income, and having some type of informal education, significantly determine the employment status of graduated economists. Moreover, there is no clear-cut evidence that the gender and the bachelor programme are one of the main determinants, even though positive linkage for females, studying financial management and Accounting and auditing, and employment is observed. The empirical findings provide clear direction for policy creation regarding study pro-grammes and higher youth employment, both for the national government and the higher education institutions.
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Determinants of Motor Third Party Liability insurance in North Macedonia
(2022-09)
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This paper emphasizes the importance of the motor third party liability (MTPL) insurance in the Republic of North Macedonia as the dominant class in the Macedonian insurance sector. Even though underdeveloped, the Macedonian insurance market holds great potential, but obstacles such as low financial literacy, insurance culture among economic agents, and general problems in adequate risk valuation weaken serious growth. Additionally, it is confirmed in various cases that the economic development is a significant determinant of insurance market development (Ward and Zurbruegg, 2000; Skalská, 2018). The purpose of insurance is to protect risk averse individuals from suffering the full consequences of actions that affect them adversely (Spence and Zeckhauser, 1971), with insurance companies acting as risk underwriters. With the rising population, complex urban traffic and technological progress, a need for compulsory insurance of motor third-party liability emerged. Till date, a bonus-malus tariff system is employed in the case of the Macedonian insurance sector. Since the general concept is risk valuation and pooling, a meaningful approach is premium differentiation between insurers which reflects risk heterogeneity (Henckaerts et al., 2018). A liberalized formation of MTPL prices is announced in North Macedonia, but a significant challenge may be the inadequate and scarce data (Tomeski, 2012). As claims become more common, the insurance market steadily focuses on other classes such as property and voluntary health insurance but nothing significant enough to substantially change the business environment. Through the analysis of the determinants of MTPL insurance premium, we ought to find the underlying relationships between a set of variables which should help policy creators and insurance companies in formulating future business decisions. Using a simultaneous inductive and deductive techniques, we conduct the study entirely on quantitative basis. The research distances from the pure macroeconomic determinants previously treated in studies of non-life insurance demand (Poposki, Kjosevski and Stojanovski, 2015) and insurance expenditures (Trinh, Nguyen and Sgro, 2016). On contrary, we ought to depict the underlying microeconomic relationships which are idiosyncratic i.e., specific for each insurance company and the built-in consumer tendencies. Worth noting that consumer behavior can also be studied in a different manner such as through their transition between companies, as Blazheska and Ivanovski show (2021). By discussing a specific class of compulsory insurance – the MTPL, we empirically contextualize the most important class of insurance in a developing Western Balkan economy. The main research hypothesis is that MTPL gross written premium dynamics can be significantly determined by the number of contracts, gross claims liquidated, market share and share of MTPL insurance in total gross written premium (GWP).
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Comparative analysis of forecasting models in the nonlife insurance: Insights from the SARIMA and ETS approaches
(Wiley, 2024-09-26)
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To ensure competitiveness and sustainability, insurance companies need accurate predictions. The paper analyzes nonlife insurance gross written premiums, technical premiums, claims, and the number of contracts through a multi‐model univariate approach comparing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) with Exponential Smoothing models. The hypothesis suggests that SARIMA's superior handling of complex seasonal patterns enhances predictive accuracy. Data from 2012M01 to 2023M06 provides a comprehensive sector‐wide view, essential for decision‐making. The results show that SARIMA models outperform exponential smoothing in almost all major accuracy metrics over the training period. Over the test period, the exponential smoothing models show more accurate performances. However, the optimal exponential smoothing models fail in mitigating autocorrelation and non‐normality in residuals, which is successfully tackled by the weighted ensemble models. In all cases except for the number of contracts concluded, the rolling one‐step ahead forecast approach generates superior accuracy over the classic training‐test split. This research confirms that using SARIMA, exponential smoothing, weighted ensemble, and rolling window models can significantly improve forecasting accuracy and are better solutions than the seasonal naive benchmark. It provides important insights into insurance forecasting and risk management, which are often overlooked in existing literature, and can greatly benefit corporate governance and policymaking.
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Detection and Monitoring of Slope Movement by Using Point Cloud Derived from the SfM Technique
(University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining ; Geology, 2024)
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Nedelkovska, Natasha
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Petrov, Gose
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Nikolovski, Toni
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FINANCIAL SECTOR STOCKS REACTION TO COVID-19 EVENTS
(Faculty of Economics - Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, 2021-11-13)
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Ahmedi, Sulejman
Price fluctuations in the financial sector are often of major interest when projecting the general performance and state of the economy. The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in the sector are analyzed through the event study method. A random sample portfolio of 20 financial sector stocks listed on the NYSE is used and its reaction on 15 different events throughout 2020 is observed. Results indicate that events in the earlier stage of the pandemic exhibit both higher abnormal returns and significance, compared to the ones at the latter stages, with a larger proportion of them being bad news. The financial sector is perceived to react significantly in such cases, usually anticipating them beforehand. As adjustment windows are rarely significant, the market’s reaction is deemed as efficient. The general conclusion is that the financial sector stocks react to important COVID-19 news, generating abnormal rather than expected returns.
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Modeling and Forecasting Stock Price Movements
(University of Castilla – la Mancha and Tor Vergata University, 2022-07-27)
Spasovska, Marija
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Stakeholder perceptions of migration policies and investment in human capital development: expert interview evidence from policymakers, labor market organizations and social partners in North Macedonia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Ethiopia
(2026-01-16)
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Introduction: Policies that combine human capital development and migration governance are necessary because migration alters the labor supply and skill distribution across economies. Through a cross-country approach, four migrant-origin countries, North Macedonia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Ethiopia, that reflect various combinations of demographic pressures, institutional capacity, and conflict shocks are examined in this study. Methods: Using standardized qualitative expert interviews with policymakers, labor market intermediaries, and social partners, analyzed through a reflexive thematic analysis, the study explores the respondents’ perceptions and the channels through which education and migration policies, as perceived, interact to influence labor market outcomes. Results: Respondents reported that migration dynamics exacerbate structural unemployment, gender disparities, brain drain, and ongoing skill mismatches in all four countries. Interviewees highlight structural gaps in technical training and job-readiness in Ethiopia, while in Ukraine, a prime example of the disruptive effects of war, population displacement strains both education and the labor market. In North Macedonia and Türkiye, skill mismatches are pronounced by the notable emigration as well as the inefficiency of retention mechanisms. Among all studied countries, participants identified demand-based training and reliable institutional frameworks as crucial levers for reducing shortages and slowing the human capital depletion. Discussion: The comparative study emphasizes the need for policies that efficiently connect labor market demands, migration management, and education to achieve a balance between social demands and long-term socioeconomic growth.

Ivanovski, Igor

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