Bucevska, Vesna

Preferred name

Bucevska, Vesna

Official Name

Bucevska, Vesna

Main Affiliation

vesna@eccf.ukim.edu.mk

Now showing 1 - 10 of 43

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Modeling Migration from the EU Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries to the EU member states
(Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, Varazdin, Croatia University North, Koprivnica, Croatia, 2016)
The EU candidate and potential candidate countries have a long history of economic emigration to the EU member states. However, the recent influx of refugees from North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia to Europe has raised not only the political, but also traditional economic concerns of large immigration flows. In light of the recent migration developments and the increased migration fear index among the EU member states, the purpose of our paper is to answer the question if the fear of labour migration from the EU candidate and potential candidate countries to the EU member states is justified or not. In order to achieve this objective, we examine a number of determinants of migration from the EU candidate and potential candidate countries to the EU member countries and specify and estimate an extended gravity model of migration, based on panel data analysis, for six EU candidate and potential candidate countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia , Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey) and EU-27 member states in the period 2001-2014. Our results indicate that the difference in income level between the EU-27 and EU candidate and potential candidate countries, measured as real GDP per capita, the gross average monthly wages in the EU candidate and potential candidate countries and the stock of the EU candidate and potential candidate countries’ nationals residing in the EU-27 member states as a share in the total population of the countries of origin are the main determinants of migration from the EU candidate and potential candidate countries to the EU-27. One of the most important finding of our analysis is that the achieved progress of the EU candidate and potential countries on their way towards full EU would have a positive, but only marginal significant impact on the emigration from these countries to the EU member states.
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The Determinants of Profitability in Banking Industry: Empirical Research on Selected Balkan Countries
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-03)
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Hadzi misheva, Branka
The determinants of bank profitability in general, and of the impact of market structure and efficiency on bank performance in particular, remain a much- researched topic in bank performance analysis. The purpose of this article is to investigate the relevance of the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis versus the efficiency hypothesis in explaining bank performance by analyzing 127 commercial banks from six Balkan countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Macedonia) over the period 2005–2009. In order to account for the dynamic nature of bank profits, it uses a GMM estimator in testing the determinants of bank profitability. The estimation results suggest that profits persist to some extent, indicating that the deviation from a perfectly competitive market structure is marginal. In addition, the findings suggest that efficiency is significantly and positively associated with profitability, whereas the industry concentration variable is insignificant in explaining profitability, indicating support in favor of the efficiency hypothesis. Moreover, among the bank-specific control variables, only size is reported insignificant, and the rest of the variables affect bank profitability in the anticipated manner. Finally, the results suggest that neither inflation nor economic growth has an impact on bank profitability.
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Currency Crises in EU Candidate Countries: An Early Warning System Approach
(Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, 2015-09)
The purpose of this paper is to develop an econometric model of early warning system (EWS) for predicting currency crises in EU candidate countries. Using actual quarterly panel data for three EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey) in the period January 2005 - June 2010, we estimate a binomial logit model, which accurately predicts potential episodes of outbreak of currency crisis. In addition, we find that real GDP growth rate, participation in an IMF loan program, current account and fiscal balance and short-term external indebtedness are the most significant common predictors of currency crises across EU candidate countries. These results imply implementing policy measures aimed at raising the growth potential of the domestic economies of EU candidate countries, monitoring their short-term external indebtedness, improving their external competitiveness, cutting public spending and increasing the confidence of residents and non-residents in their domestic banking sectors.
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APPLICATION OF SIX SIGMA IN HIGHER EDUCATION QUALITY ASSURANCE
(Faculty of Business and Economics-Zagreb, 2018-05)
Quality management in higher education has always been of utmost importance. It has become an even more important issue in the last years as a result of the increased demands by stakeholders and competitors. Although the Six Sigma concept has been successfully implemented in manufacturing industry for many decades and in the service sector in the last decade, its implementation in the quality assurance of higher education intuitions is still lacking. The purpose of this paper is to show that higher education providers have a great scope of implementing the Six Sigma concept. To achieve this objective, we present the Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) model. The application of this model in HEIs can help in better understanding of the university processes and in their quality assurance.
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An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries
(Prague Development Center, 2011)
The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants to outbreak of financial crises in the EU candidate countries (Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey) and to identify the best-performing early warning indicators of financial crises. We have estimated a binomial logit model of the three EU candidate countries for the period 2005Q1 to 2009Q4 using actual quarterly data. It has been found that the capital account indicators (gross external debt relative to export) and the financial sector variables (the domestic loans and the total bank deposits in relation to GDP) have the highest contribution of all early warning indicators, which is in line with the previous studies of financial shocks in emerging markets. The obtained empirical results give support to the thesis that financial crises in the EU candidate countries can not be solely explained and predicted by only one group of variables, but by a number of different types of indicators. Based on our empirical findings, the EU candidate countries are strongly suggested to decrease their stock of external debt to GNP and to continually analyze and close monitor the financial deepening processes in their countries.
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An empirical evaluation of GARCH models in Value-at-Risk estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange
(IRENET, Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, 2013)
Background: In light of the latest global financial crisis and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis, accurate measuring of market losses has become a very current issue. One of the most popular risk measures is Value-at-Risk (VaR). Objectives: Our paper has two main purposes. The first is to test the relative performance of selected GARCH-type models in terms of their ability of delivering volatility estimates. The second one is to contribute to extend the very scarce empirical research on VaR estimation in emerging financial markets. Methods/Approach: Using the daily returns of the Macedonian stock exchange index-MBI 10, we have tested the performance of the symmetric GARCH (1,1) and the GARCH-M model as well as of the asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) model, the GARCH-GJR model and the APARCH (1,1) model with different residual distributions. Results: The most adequate GARCH family models for estimating volatility in the Macedonian stock market are the asymmetric EGARCH model with Student’s t-distribution, the EGARCH model with normal distribution and the GARCH-GJR model. Conclusion: The econometric estimation of VaR is related to the chosen GARCH model. The obtained findings bear important implications regarding VaR estimation in turbulent times that have to be addressed by investors in emerging capital markets
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Resampling methods for labour force survey
(Statističko društvo Srbije, 2008)
Labor force survey is one of the most important surveys carried out in all countries. Its main purpose is to estimate quantities such as the unemployment rate and the number of people in work. Labor force survey is focused both in estimates at a given time and in changes between two successive time period. However, it is essential to know the precision of the estimates and their corresponding variances. In order to estimate the variance in a complex survey, where the sample is reweighted to match some known marginal quantities based on age, sex and geographical location, we apply the resampling methods. This paper reviews the resampling methods for the analysis of labour force survey that have been proposed in the literature—the jackknife, balanced repeated replication and the bootstrap and discuss the extent to which they are useful. Although the resampling methods may be useful in solving of some problems, there is no evidence that they are generally useful techniques for the analysis of labour force surveys
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The barriers to acceptance of statistical methods of quality control in the Macedonian manufacturing industry
(International Statistical Instititute (ISI), 2001-08)
This paper reveals that industry in the Republic of Macedonia makes surprisingly little use of statistical methods of quality control (SQC) and describes the reasons for its low usage. In summary, the major barrier preventing companies from introducing SQC is lack of knowledge. Whilst this was often not the first reason given, much circumstantial evidence from questionnaires and direct evidence from interviews suggest that decisions are often taken on the basis of very little or no knowledge. Clearly, there is an urgent need to increase awareness and knowledge of SQC
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Determinants of transparency and disclosure –evidence from post-transition economies
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-05)
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In this paper, we examine the patterns of behaviour of companies from former socialist countries related to the application of good corporate governance practices. We try to assess the level of transparency and to determine if there are any factors that systematically influence corporate behaviour in this regard. Using a sample of 145 companies from Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia and Serbia, we apply Standard & Poor’s (S&P) methodology for assessment of transparency and disclosure levels and find that the companies in these countries generally lag in terms of transparency behind their peers worldwide as measured one decade ago. Additionally, using the same sample, we apply a regression analysis and conclude that the level of transparency is positively related to the size of the company and the need for external financing, but negatively to the concentration of ownership and we also observe important country effects. We do not find a statistically significant relationship between transparency and profitability and relate this finding with the prevailing attitude of the companies towards the stock market. Having in mind the different scores by country and by area of disclosure, we believe that there is still scope for improvement using proper advising and public policy measures.
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A Gravity Model of the Macedonian Export
(International Statistical Institute (ISI), 2007-08)
The current trend towards conclusion of regional trade agreements as well as the economic and political transformations of Central and Eastern Europe countries which initiate their integration in the world trade system has revitalized the interest in the gravity model of the international trade. The aim of this article is to estimate the Macedonian export using the gravity model based on the bilateral trade movements between Macedonia and its importing countries in 2005 based on the data from the State Statistical Office of Macedonia. Using the equation based on one country, we avoid the problems which appear with cross section and panel specification of the gravity model. The estimation of the gravity model has been done using the statistical software package Statgraphics Plus 5.1. According to the results of the model and the ratio between the actual and potential export, some directions for improvement of Macedonian export in the future are suggested.

Bucevska, Vesna

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