Gockov, GJorgji

Preferred name

Gockov, GJorgji

Official Name

Gockov, GJorgji

Main Affiliation

gockovg@eccf.ukim.edu.mk

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The role of macroprudential measures in terms of global economic crises – the case of the Republic of Macedonia
(CEA, Skopje, 2013)
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The global financial and economic crisis has revealed the lack of an analytical framework that can help in predicting and dealing with growing global financial imbalances, which can cause serious macroeconomic consequences. If we make a general retrospective of the global crisis, we will determine the fundamental shortcomings in understanding the systematic risk - in fact it is a failure to assess how the aggressive risk taking by var-ious types of financial institutions was the reason for the huge growth in the balance in the entire financial sys-tem. Excessive confidence in the ability of self-adjustment of the financial system led to an underestimation ofthe rising values of debt and leverage, as a result of the credit boom and the increase in the prices of assets.In addition there was an insufficient appreciation of the role of financial innovation and the financial regulation in increasing financial imbalances and the consequences of the real economy.The global crisis was the reason for the revision of the broad policy instruments and measures. In this respect, today's crisis pointed the need to overcome the purely micro-founded approach to financial regulation and supervision and to attract particular attention to the defining of the development of macroeconomic policy elements for financial stability. Policy makers came to a consensus that the purpose of the macroprudential policy is a reduction of the systematic risk, strengthening the ability of the financial system to cope with shocks and a strong support for stable financial system functioning, without the enormous support during the crisis.This paper will be focused on several key issues concerning macroprudential policy: defining the goals of macroprudential policies after the global financial shock; overview of the use of macruprudential measures during the crisis; analysis of the implementation and efficiency of macruprudential measures during the crisis; reasons for cooperation with monetary policy; analysis of the above mentioned issues on the case of the Republic of Macedonia, having in mind the country specific characteristics – small and open economy extremely vulnerable to global imbalances, fixed exchange rate regime.
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Austerity of fiscal stimulus in times of crisis – an old debate without consensus
(Institute of Knowledge Management - Skopje, 2017-12)
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The latest global economic and financial crisis has once again drawn the attention of economists to the debate whether it should be saved or spent in times of crisis. A number of more or less different concepts and schools have been developed in response to the role of the government and the character of the economic policy that needs to be implemented in times of crisis. Regardless of the differences between these concepts, they can all be grouped into two global approaches: interventionism and stimulating on the one hand and liberalism and saving on the other. The first approach, known as the Keynesian concept, advocates the idea of a necessity of fiscal intervention and increased consumption in times of crisis, while the second approach, known as neoliberalism or a monetary concept, is against fiscal intervention and argues that the government should create a stable environment, to refrain from excessive consumption and to stimulate austerity. These two global approaches represent two different perceptions of reality, given that they recommend the use of completely different economic policy instruments to achieve the same goals. Examples of economic crises through history and the stance and reaction of economic policy in such conditions unambiguously show that there is no universal macroeconomic concept that is applicable in all countries and at all times. On the contrary, economic history shows that classical school prevailed at certain times by favoring the concept of "liberal market" over fiscal intervention, while in others the concept of fiscal intervention and increased government consumption prevailed. That is, the past confirms that the liberalism and the concept of fiscal intervention changed after certain periods of time. Usually, the selected and applied concept initially yielded good results, but then it begins to generate serious problems and contradictions, which makes it untenable and requires a change in the direction of economic policy. The issue of choosing economic policy is particularly relevant for certain EU Member States, which, despite the consequences of the latest economic and financial crisis, face a debt crisis. One of the main dilemmas for these countries is whether to pursue an austerity policy that stabilizes public finances but deteriorate the economic growth or a policy of encouraging economic growth through increased consumption, but which additionally increases indebtedness and questions its sustainability and effect on economic growth in the future. The debate is further complicated taking into account Eurozone member states, where national fiscal policy plays a much larger role, given that member states cannot conduct their own monetary policy. The paper examines these two conflicting concepts, citing arguments for and against their application, and explores their practical application during the latest global economic and financial crisis.
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Flow of funds account in the Macedonian economy – methodology, trends and effects of the crisis
(CEA, Skopje, 2014)
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The analyses of the macroeconomic developments mainly are based on the data from the basic macroeconomic accounts – national accounts, balance of payments, monetary survey, government statistics. Based upon theoretical grounds and international methodological principles and standards, an effort has been made for establishing and developing a consistent framework for analyzing flow of funds in the Republic of Macedonia. The matrices has been constructed and a quantitative analysis has been conveyed on the flows of financial funds amongst the sectors in the Macedonian economy for the period 2004-2013. Based on the constucted matrices, (1) the position of the each sector as a net debtor/creditor is assessed, (2) the sources for financing/investing of that position are analyzed, and (3) the flows of funds among the sectors are assessed. Special attention is given to the effects of the crisis, therefore two sub-period are distinguished and separately analyzed: 2004-2008 as a pre-crisis period and 2009-2013 as a post-crisis period. In these two sub-period the changes in the behavior of the main sectors of the Macedonian economy are analyzed in terms of their net lending/borrowing position and the sources of funding that position.
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The role, significance and trend of construction sector in Macedonia
(CEA, Skopje, 2012)
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The theory has concluded, and the practice has confirmed numerous times, that the dynamic trends in construction influence the general economic activity of a country with a multiplier effect. More specifically, growth in the construction sector activity stimulates a revival of the total economic activity. Hence, the growth in this sectorstimulates a faster economic growth of a country. The governments of many countries, including Macedonia,through macroeconomics policies, encourage and stimulate construction activities with an ultimate goal to sooth recession trends in the economy. In order to reduce unemployment and strengthen aggregate demand, especially in crisis times, governments often engage in financing and building public objects. First in this paper we give a short review of why and how the developments in construction are usually analyzed, with an emphasis on the methodology implemented by the State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia; further we make an analysis of the role and significance of the construction sector in Macedonia and finally we review the EU experiences. Having this in mind and considering the fact that thus far a more serious and detailed analysis of the construction sector in Macedonia has not been done, with this paper we aim at giving a humble contribution, which would clear the way for further analyses and researches of this relevant sector of the economy.
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Financial liberalization and the financial euroization
(Institute of Economics, Skopje, 2015)
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The issue of financial liberalization is one of the most exploited topics in the late transitioning countries’ financial crises discussions. One thing the literature is seeking is what the role of the limited capital movements is. Particulary, does it send a signal to the possible investors that the country has something to hide that in terms of future macroeconomic policies will lead to financial crisis. Along with the debate of financial liberalization, the question on financial eurozation is also one important issue regarding emerging or transitioning economies. The debate on euroization is more concentrated on the determinants that in the end conclude that one very important incentive for investors to invest in instruments with foreign currency clause is the monetary credibility. The distrust of the ability for one country to maintain the inflation rate and exchange rate at a stable level merges these two issues (financial liberzlaition and euroization) in one. The first part of the paper presents two models, discussing the factors that affect domestic agents to invest abroad. The second part elaborates those factors on the case of Macedonia. Throughout the signals the deposit euroization is sending the macroeconomic policies which the paper is concluding that if the models are correct than there is no place for fear of large scale capital outflows in case of financial liberalization.
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Western Balkans countries income convergence in the context of EU membership – dynamics and determinants
(Transition Academia Press, 2019)
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Antovska, A.
The Western Balkan countries face relatively low levels of income over a longer period of time, indicating insufficient dynamics and intensity of income convergence, compared to the developed EU economies. The issue of income convergence of Western Balkan countries is particularly important in the context of their EU membership. The paper tests the existence and dynamics of income convergence of the Western Balkan Economies using both sigma (σ) and the beta (β) measures of real convergence. The evaluation of the appropriateness of the income convergence dynamics of the Western Balkan Economies is derived on the basis of a comparative analysis with the achievements of the New Member States, Baltic countries and EU - 14 in the last 20 years. The results outline that Western Balkan countries are stagnating, and they have the slowest convergence. In addition, this paper makes an overview by fixed effects panel data model of the determinants of the convergence process in the Western Balkan countries to the EU-14, taking them as complementary part of this proces. The results show that Western Balkan countries should focus mainly on agriculture and banking sector reforms in order to speed-up the convergence process.
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The influence of the banking sector functions on economic activity in Macedonia
(Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, 2015)
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The subject of this paper is the way in which the banking sector in Macedonia contributes to the economic growth by performing five basic functions: savings mobilization, risk diversification, resource allocation, corporate control and easing exchange. The basic purpose of this paper is, through assessment of the relative importance of each of the functions of the banking sector and analysis of the relationship existing between the banking sector intermediation and economic growth (as measured by GDP) to investigate the impact of the banking sector on the real sector performance in the Macedonia. According to the obtained results the paper provides conclusions for opportunities and directions for increasing the efficiency of the banking sector in the Republic of Macedonia.
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Real Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: An Empirical Analysis
(Ss Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje, 2019)
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The process of integration of the former transition economies in the European Union (EU) is associated with numerous problems and challenges. The readiness and suitability of the country for integration within the EU is directly dependent on the achieved nominal and real convergence. Without this convergence, the integration process would face in the future risks of asymmetric shocks, which would generate poor economic performance in the absence of alternative adjustment mechanisms. This paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergence through an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence.
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Designing a balanced scorecard as strategic management system for higher education institutions: A case study in Macedonia
(Centre for Evaluation in Education and Science (CEON/CEES), 2016)
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Vasileva, Vesna
European higher education institutions (HEIs) in the last two decades have faced a number of challenges: reduced public funding, increased competition from foreign and private universities, constant pressures and demands for their greater quality, and constant changes of education laws and legal regulations. The only way for fast adjustment of HEIs to the new competitive conditions is to explore all possibilities for effective implementation of some of the most popular management concepts such as Balanced Scorecard (BSC) system. Although the application of the BSC in the business sector is well documented, limited research has been reported regarding the application of the BSC in the education sector. For this purpose, relied on the existing literature, reported results and experiences from its implementation in business, firstly, we propose a suitable process for building a BSC system for HEI, and then we design a specific Strategy map and BSC system applicable for the Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, easily adaptable for implementation in other HEIs.
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Income distribution and its determinants in the Republic of Macedonia
(INSTITUTE OF KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT SKOPJE, MACEDONIA, 2018)
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Income inequality, which is the unequal distribution of income is an important issue within the study of economic development. The economic theories on the income distribution consist of many potential factors by which income inequality can be influenced, with а minor point on a selection of suitable determinants to include in Gini coefficient regression model. Past studies remain divided about this issue, where some find there to be a positive relationship and others support a negative relationship between income inequality and the factors that determinate it. Recent researches and analysis show that income inequality in Macedonia has increased in recent years. Therefore, the level of inequality in the distribution of wages in Macedonia in 2008 as a year when the economic crisis started in the last quarter, in 2012 as the year in which GDP still has had a negative rate of economic growth, in 2014, when the economy maintained positive economic growth and in 2016 as a year with last available annual data will be discussed. The purpose and the aim of this study is to bring forward the major macroeconomic determinants that affect the income inequality in Macedonia, taking into account the specific characteristics of the country. The primary papers which investigate the determinants of income inequality analyze the effect of economic growth on income inequality. So, we will use real GDP growth as one of explanatory variable and employment, real wages, foreign direct investments and labor productivity as independent variables alongside the economic growth. After theoretical background, correlation and regression analysis will be done in order to test the relationship between Gini coefficient as a dependent variable and GDP per capita, employment, real wages, foreign direct investments and labor productivity as independent variables. The fundamental assumption for a clear econometric analysis is the stationarity of data time series. Therefore, before the regression analysis is made, the stationarity of the variables involved in the regression model will be checked. A regression analysis will be followed by examination of stationarity of time series, as well as the imperative specifications for selecting the best model from all of the available alternatives. The research will be based on time series as they are more significant when analyzing individual countries. The data on empirical analysis that refer to the analyzed period will be taken from State Office of the Republic of Macedonia and World Bank. Analyzing these determinants is of a great importance because such analysis can be used by creators of economic policies, in the direction of decreasing income inequality and helping the economy and its citizens from the consequences of a high level of inequality, especially in the context of developing countries as economically damaging effects of income inequality are more difficult for developing countries because they already have weak economies.

Gockov, GJorgji

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