LONGITUDINAL DATA FOR MODELING URBAN MOBILITY ON LONG TERM

Abstract

The usage of longitudinal data for modelling urban mobility is crucial when the analysis and forecast model would consider temporal modifications of behaviour of population in studied urban area. This paper treats the modelling and forecast of urban mobility on long term based on pseudo-longitudinal data. The analysis and investigated data are related to the urban area Lille in France. The examined data are carried out in 1976, 1987 and 1998, according to the standard methodology for mobility survey of households in France. The longitudinal data are made from repetitive surveys which makes possible to get insight in the behaviour dynamics. The decomposition of temporal effects into an effect of age and an effect of generation (cohort) makes possible to draw the sample profile during the life cycle and to estimate its temporal deformations. This is the origin of the age-cohort model for forecasting of urban mobility on long term.