Variation And Trend Of Annual Maximum Daily Rain In Macedonia

Abstract

Annual maximum daily rainfall is defined as extreme rainfall for the formation of flood waves in a certain area (basin, region, country, etc.) with direct consequences on agricultural land, roads, sewers, etc. Therefore, analysis of changes and trend of annual maximum rainfall based on relevant measured data is considered extremely necessary and important in hydrology for elaboration of appropriate hydrological studies. The subject of the analysis presented in this paper have been changes in annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) at eight measuring stations in the R. N. Macedonia (Skopje, Shtip, Prilep, Bitola, Ohrid, Demir Kapija, Lazaropole) for the last 65 years. The variation and trend of annual maximum daily precipitations have been analyzed on the basis of data on precipitation measured in the period from 1956 to 2020. The analysis has included testing of the homogeneity of the sequences, statistical analysis, defining the distribution of extreme values and the probability of occurrence for different return periods as well as the spatial distribution of the annual maximum daily precipitation in the territory of the R. N. Macedonia for 50 and 100 year return periods. The analysis of the series of measured data on the annual maximum daily precipitation at all eight measuring stations shows logical variability with an increasing trend of precipitation in the last 30 years.