Теориски основи и компаративна анализа на кредитните политики на европскиот континентален и американскиот банкарски систем во однос на кредитните политики на македонскиот банкарски систем

Abstract

This research aims to perform analysis of the development of the financial sector of the western countries, through the credit policies of their banking systems, and what kind of influence had that development over the development of the real economy, as well as to perform comparison with the developments in the Republic of Macedonia. The research should further illustrate whether such development was on prudent basis taking into considerations the latest events, financial crises, economic crises and the uncertainty from the over-indebtedness of the households, companies and the countries. The development of the Macedonian financial and real sector will be analyzed in the similar context, latest events viewed as a positive example of the country which mitigates stable monetary system, but from the other hand as a country ranked on the top of the countries regarding unemployment and poverty rates. The observation will be for a period of around ten years, i.e. five years before and five year after the crises of 2007/2008. On one side, articles and researches which cover similar topics will be used, as well as theoretical basis regarding the crediting, risk management, influence of the credit development over economic development. On the other side, through the practical research in form of questionnaire, it will be given empirical support/rejection of the thesis regarding: - Were/are the credit policies of the Western European and/or American banks aggressive and those of Macedonian conservative? - Do the credit polices influence the development of the real economy, and what is the influence if any? The opinion of the managers of many EU, US and domestic banks in the questionnaire, as well as in the previously conducted analysis on similar topics, answer the first question. The second question is answered, except by the theoretical views, by the trend analysis of the questionnaire too, i.e. comparison of the answers for the period before and after the crises, as well as the macroeconomic statistical data and microeconomic data from the biggest banks per country for the relevant period. In its final phase, this paper aims to give directions for the future activities of the banks. Based on credit policies led so far and the influence of those polices over the operations of the banks themselves, over the monetary and financial system as a whole and indirectly over the real economy, the paper offer suggestions for improving the future operations. Future credit policies should better cope with the requests from the investors for growth of profitability, successful risk management, preventing future macro and micro instabilities and preventing distresses like the once from 2007/2008 which consequences are felt even today in the most countries in the world.