MACROECONOMIC AND MACRO-FINANCIAL FACTORS OF THE STABILITY OF THE BANKING SECTOR - THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Abstract

Banks, as financial institutions, play a vital role in achieving financial stability and economic growth, with their expected contribution through mobilization and allocation of financial resources throughout the economy. Only a reliable and stable banking system that enjoys the trust of economic entities can be an effective intermediary of the resources of the national economy in order to intensify economic development. The role of banks is even more important for developing economies with underdeveloped capital markets. The banking sector is still the primary form of financial intermediation in the Republic of North Macedonia. The study examine the stability of the banking sector in North Macedonia, and explores the macroeconomic, macro financial factors behind stability indicators of banking sector functioning in North Macedonia over the 1996- 2017 period by employing correlations and multiple linear regression model. Results of the analysis showed that macroeconomic factors are not affecting selected bank stability indicators: NPL and capital adequacy. In addition, macro-financial factors (that include the specific determinants of the banking sector that relate to the size, structure, efficiency of the banking sector, competition) are affecting indicators and can be shown to be reliable early warning indicators. There is a broad consensus that strong and effective micro- and macroprudential policies are needed to assure a robust and resilient financial system. Author’s recommendation is implementation regulatory framework and construction of legal, institutional, regulatory landscape for macro-prudential regulation and policies, that act complementing to microprudential and macroeconomic policies, that have an impact on systemic financial stability.