ASSESMENT OF THE MACEDONIAN POWER SYSTEM POTENTIAL TOWARD GREEN ENERGY TRANSITION

Abstract

This paper presents original analysis of Macedonian energy sector. The options for installing RES capacities are investigated by using the EnergyPLAN software. Analysis was conducted for base scenario and two renewable scenarios designed for achieving a sustainable future with lower CO2 emissions, higher level of RES share, import independence and lower LCOE prices. The results have shown that achieving these goals is possible in the two renewable scenarios. The electricity production from RES is increased from 22.2% in Scenario 1 to 86% in Scenario 2 and 110% in Scenario 3. The annual CO2 emissions will decrease from 3.04Mt/annual in Scenario 1 to 0.67Mt/annual and 0.41Mt/annual in the second and third scenarios, respectively. This paper also analyzes how the change of CO2 prices can affect the LCOE. The LCOE increases by 103.8% in Scenario 1 when CO2 price increases from 20 to 100eur/t while in the third scenario increases by only 8.16% because of the low CO2 emissions. This shows how the renewable scenarios can be almost independent and predictable in terms of CO2 emissions and costs.