Advanced Method for Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather and Local-scale Hazards
Journal
Journal of Atmospheric Science Research
Date Issued
2022-02-17
Author(s)
Sladić, N
Ćurić, M
Abstract
Hurricane Ida ferociously affected many south-eastern and eastern parts of
the United States, making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years.
Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the
ex-Hurricane, Ida, as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast,
accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York
City on September 01, 2021. This advanced method accurately detected
the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h
lead time and even Level 5, devised in the categorical outlooks legend of
the system. Therefore, an extreme level implied a very high probability
of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC. Cloud model output
fields (updrafts and downdrafts, wind shear, near-surface convergence,
the vertical component of relative vorticity) show the rapid development
of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone.
The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity
patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable (HP) supercell with
the possibility of tornado initiation. Open boundary conditions represent
a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm,
initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the
period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred. Тhe
modeled results agree well with the observations.
the United States, making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years.
Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the
ex-Hurricane, Ida, as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast,
accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York
City on September 01, 2021. This advanced method accurately detected
the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h
lead time and even Level 5, devised in the categorical outlooks legend of
the system. Therefore, an extreme level implied a very high probability
of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC. Cloud model output
fields (updrafts and downdrafts, wind shear, near-surface convergence,
the vertical component of relative vorticity) show the rapid development
of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone.
The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity
patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable (HP) supercell with
the possibility of tornado initiation. Open boundary conditions represent
a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm,
initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the
period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred. Тhe
modeled results agree well with the observations.
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