Ensemble cloud model application in simulating the catastrophic heavy rainfall event
Journal
Journal of Atmospheric Science Research
Date Issued
2022-11-30
Author(s)
Curic, Mladjen
Grcic, Marija
Abstract
An attempt has been made in the present research to simulate a deadly
flash-flood event over the City of Skopje, Macedonia on 6 August 2016.
A cloud model ensemble forecast method is developed to simulate a
super-cell storm’s initiation and evolutionary features. Sounding data
are generated using an ensemble approach, that utilizes a triple-nested
WRF model. A three-dimensional (3-D) convective cloud model (CCM)
with a very fine horizontal grid resolution of 250-m is initialized, using
the initial representative sounding data, derived from the WRF 1-km
forecast outputs. CCM is configured and run with an open lateral boundary
conditions LBC, allowing explicit simulation of convective scale processes.
This preliminary study showed that the ensemble approach has some
advantages in the generation of the initial data and the model initialization.
The applied method minimizes the uncertainties and provides a more
qualitative-quantitative assessment of super-cell storm initiation, cell
structure, evolutionary properties, and intensity. A high-resolution 3-D
run is capable to resolve detailed aspects of convection, including highintensity convective precipitation. The results are significant not only from
the aspect of the cloud model’s ability to provide a qualitative-quantitative
assessment of intense precipitation but also for a deeper understanding of
the essence of storm development, its vortex dynamics, and the meaning of
micro-physical processes for the production and release of large amounts
of precipitation that were the cause of the catastrophic flood in an urban
area. After a series of experiments and verification, such a system could be
a reliable tool in weather services for very short-range forecasting (nowcasting) and early warning of weather disasters.
flash-flood event over the City of Skopje, Macedonia on 6 August 2016.
A cloud model ensemble forecast method is developed to simulate a
super-cell storm’s initiation and evolutionary features. Sounding data
are generated using an ensemble approach, that utilizes a triple-nested
WRF model. A three-dimensional (3-D) convective cloud model (CCM)
with a very fine horizontal grid resolution of 250-m is initialized, using
the initial representative sounding data, derived from the WRF 1-km
forecast outputs. CCM is configured and run with an open lateral boundary
conditions LBC, allowing explicit simulation of convective scale processes.
This preliminary study showed that the ensemble approach has some
advantages in the generation of the initial data and the model initialization.
The applied method minimizes the uncertainties and provides a more
qualitative-quantitative assessment of super-cell storm initiation, cell
structure, evolutionary properties, and intensity. A high-resolution 3-D
run is capable to resolve detailed aspects of convection, including highintensity convective precipitation. The results are significant not only from
the aspect of the cloud model’s ability to provide a qualitative-quantitative
assessment of intense precipitation but also for a deeper understanding of
the essence of storm development, its vortex dynamics, and the meaning of
micro-physical processes for the production and release of large amounts
of precipitation that were the cause of the catastrophic flood in an urban
area. After a series of experiments and verification, such a system could be
a reliable tool in weather services for very short-range forecasting (nowcasting) and early warning of weather disasters.
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