Emigration and remittances during Covid-19: evidence from North Macedonia and Serbia

Abstract

This paper provides assessment of the changes in the scope and transfer of the remittances in North Macedonia and Serbia, in light of changes in the emigration abroad during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is based on the foreign data sources about emigration abroad, as well as annual and monthly remittance data from national banks of both countries. Emigration abroad from North Macedonia and Serbia in 2020 continued but with decreased intensity than in previous years. In 2020 compared to 2019, the transfer of remittances through official channels is almost 50% higher in North Macedonia and about 17% lower in Serbia, while in 2021 compared to 2020 it increased in both countries. It implicates significant shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions. The category of other current transfers related to the foreign exchange operations in 2020 compared to 2019, noticed considerable decrease in both countries (for two fifths in North Macedonia and for more than one fourth in Serbia). Their decline is particularly emphasized in July and August due to less migrants’ arrivals. In 2021, the increased number of migrants in both countries results with higher inflow of remittances in cash. Changed transfer of the remittances imply need for: Development of digital financial tools according the migrant’s needs; To stimulate the use of bank cards for remittance recipients; Improvement of communication tools to promote financial literacy and encourage the use of digital services by migrants and their families; etc.