Forecasting as a Function of Security Management

Abstract

The forecasting function in security sector management is a significant sub-phase or derivative of planning and assessing specific security threats, risks and challenges, and for the process of adjusting planning deviations. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the correlation between forecasting in security management and efficiency in the planned execution of objectives, both operational and strategic in macro perspective, i.e. in terms of flexibility to include and integrate numerous elements and factors in security planning and subsequently forecasting, in order to overcome the rigidity of the strategic long-term and medium-term directions prescribed in the normative frameworks. The initial hypothesis of this paper refers to the claim that security forecasting in designated institutions should result from a comprehensive and integrated set of information collected and obtained through internal and inter-organizational channels of real-time information exchange, which provides flexibility and resilience of organizational activities in realization of security goals and minimization of the vulnerability of the security system. The first variable related to the hypothesis emphasizes the importance of anticipating changes and shifts in trends and tendencies in the field of identifying security risks and threats and their proper resolution. The second variable in support of the main hypothesis refers to the claim that sufficient forecast increases the ability to counter established security risks and threats. The methodology applied for this paper includes a qualitative analysis of specific domestic strategic documents and legal provisions that define the forecasting function in the security sector, as well as the relevant institutions responsible for creating the forecasts and their specific standards and procedures; method of comparison with the review of equivalent strategic documents and legal provisions from the immediate environment and display of quantitative data on the correlation of variables.