Forecasting as a Function of Security Management
Journal
Proceedings of the Economics & Finance Conferences
Date Issued
2022
Author(s)
Bardjieva Miovska, Leta
DOI
10.20472/EFC.2022.016.003
Abstract
The forecasting function in security sector management is a significant sub-phase or derivative of
planning and assessing specific security threats, risks and challenges, and for the process of
adjusting planning deviations.
The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the correlation between forecasting in security
management and efficiency in the planned execution of objectives, both operational and strategic in
macro perspective, i.e. in terms of flexibility to include and integrate numerous elements and factors
in security planning and subsequently forecasting, in order to overcome the rigidity of the strategic
long-term and medium-term directions prescribed in the normative frameworks.
The initial hypothesis of this paper refers to the claim that security forecasting in designated
institutions should result from a comprehensive and integrated set of information collected and
obtained through internal and inter-organizational channels of real-time information exchange, which
provides flexibility and resilience of organizational activities in realization of security goals and
minimization of the vulnerability of the security system.
The first variable related to the hypothesis emphasizes the importance of anticipating changes and
shifts in trends and tendencies in the field of identifying security risks and threats and their proper
resolution.
The second variable in support of the main hypothesis refers to the claim that sufficient forecast
increases the ability to counter established security risks and threats.
The methodology applied for this paper includes a qualitative analysis of specific domestic strategic
documents and legal provisions that define the forecasting function in the security sector, as well as
the relevant institutions responsible for creating the forecasts and their specific standards and
procedures; method of comparison with the review of equivalent strategic documents and legal
provisions from the immediate environment and display of quantitative data on the correlation of
variables.
planning and assessing specific security threats, risks and challenges, and for the process of
adjusting planning deviations.
The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the correlation between forecasting in security
management and efficiency in the planned execution of objectives, both operational and strategic in
macro perspective, i.e. in terms of flexibility to include and integrate numerous elements and factors
in security planning and subsequently forecasting, in order to overcome the rigidity of the strategic
long-term and medium-term directions prescribed in the normative frameworks.
The initial hypothesis of this paper refers to the claim that security forecasting in designated
institutions should result from a comprehensive and integrated set of information collected and
obtained through internal and inter-organizational channels of real-time information exchange, which
provides flexibility and resilience of organizational activities in realization of security goals and
minimization of the vulnerability of the security system.
The first variable related to the hypothesis emphasizes the importance of anticipating changes and
shifts in trends and tendencies in the field of identifying security risks and threats and their proper
resolution.
The second variable in support of the main hypothesis refers to the claim that sufficient forecast
increases the ability to counter established security risks and threats.
The methodology applied for this paper includes a qualitative analysis of specific domestic strategic
documents and legal provisions that define the forecasting function in the security sector, as well as
the relevant institutions responsible for creating the forecasts and their specific standards and
procedures; method of comparison with the review of equivalent strategic documents and legal
provisions from the immediate environment and display of quantitative data on the correlation of
variables.
Subjects
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